10th-12th August Tips/Statistics Analysis


Now that all the games have ended, we have had a chance to review how we have done this weekend. It started so well, we had a 7/1 winner, two bets (12/1 and 34/1) were let down by one. Come saturday night we had picked 33 wins out of 48 games. Sunday was a little disappointing. Ajax, who we tipped heavily against an AZ side that have lost both star players, lost a man whilst 2-1 up and gave away a penalty, losing 3-2 eventually. Schalke, again one of our favourites to win struggled against a resurgent Hamburg and fought back to draw 3-3, Adam Szalai scoring on debut. Had those two won another bet would have won. Dortmund started well, with new-boy Pierre Emerick Aubameyang scoring a hat-trick on debut in a 4-0 win over Augsburg. Marseille started with aplomb, leading Guingamp 2-0 in the first 4 minutes, Dmitri Payet, a £8m signing from Lille scored 2 in a 3-1 win.

Saturday morning was a rush, and rather stupidly i put Ajax in 3 bets. That is a cardinal sin – our personal boundaries say to never put a team in more than 2 bets, that way the damage is contained. Had they not had Ricardo van Rhjin sent off they may have won and we would be here lauding ourselves for taking that risk, but we learn a lesson that has been taught many times…

Back to the positives – we were one team out on 5 bets, meaning with a little luck 6/10 bets would have won, a feat we have achieved once before. That is a good sign given we are two weeks into our season. Here are the results from our statistics for the weekend:

Odds On: Won 24 (75%) Drawn 4 (12.5%) Lost 4 (12.5%)

Positive Odds: Won 20 (56%) Drawn 9 (25%) Lost 7 (19%)

With it being only the 2nd week, we are very pleased with the results. 75% is above our overall rate for last season in this section, and is something we are looking to get above 80% – so we are getting there. Positive win percentage last season was around the 45% mark, so the fact we are above 50% so early gives us great satisfaction. Here are the results for the tips:

Odds On:
1. Watford (W) Leyton Orient (W) Kidderminster (W) Wrexham (W) – 4/4 – 7/1 Win
2. Dortmund (W) IFK Goteborg (W) Ajax, Legia Warsaw (L) – 2/4
3. Lech Poznan (W) Anderlecht (W) CFR Cluj (W) Lille (W) Schalke (L) – 4/5
4. Plzen (W) Sparta Pr (W) Maribor (W) PSV (W) Ajax (L) Dortmund (W) – 5/6
5. Watford, Dortmund, Anderlecht, Kidderminster (W) Legia, Ajax, Schalke (L) – 4/7

Positive Odds:
1. QPR (D) Peterborough (W) Nottingham Forest (W) – 2/3
2. Ipswich (W) Fleetwood (W) Barnet (W) Reading (D) – 3/4
3. Monaco (W) Marseille (W) Petrolul (W) Vitesse (L) – 3/4
4. Monaco, Barnet, P’boro (W) QPR (D) Vitesse (L) – 3/5
5. Burton, N Forest, Fleetwood, Southend (W) Reading (D) Newport (L) – 4/6

As you can see, a very tight weekend, one result here and there could have resulted in up-to 34/1 wins and very nearly 5/1 and 7/1 wins to go with the 7/1 winner we did have. Either way prospects are looking good for the coming weeks. We just have to keep up our good work and hope you stick with us!

Will and James