The start of the new season is always exciting from a neutral point of view for all fans. We get to see new signings on the pitch playing competitively – this season it will be the likes of Diego Costa, Alexis Sanchez and Remy Cabella appearing for the first time in their teams colours. Sometimes we get to see a new manager – Louis Van Gaal springs to mind, as well as Luis Enrique at Barcelona and Ronald Koeman at Southampton.
However, from a betting point of view the first month or so is a nightmare! Pre-season means nothing, rarely is the first choice starting 11 all played together, and playing teams from different leagues across the world means you never quite get an accurate gauge of where a team is. The plus side is the bookies are in the same boat – they can guestimate who will be good etc, and often go off late season form, and the general size of the teams playing – so for example Liverpool are playing Southampton first game up, and despite the fact Suarez has gone Lallana, Markovic and more have come in, with a possible 3 being from Southampton. They are around 4/11 to win, with the likes of Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle unknown qualities in this league.
The plus point is if you do a little digging and get a little luck, there is loads of value out there. Some away odds you will see for the first few weeks are very high. We will do a Preview for each country and the leagues involved, giving an insight into transfers, which could give some clues as to who will do okay. We will however see a lot of early shocks. Bookies will try and lower prices in order to lure punters into a false sense of security – people may think “Well, if XX are that price, they must have a great shot of winning” – don’t buy that rubbish, it’s just a ploy to get people betting with confidence.
For us, this is our 2nd season, and we have learned a lot. I was stupidly tipping 10 acca’s a weekend, with 5 daily tips for a Saturday and Sunday. That is far too many! This season it will be fewer tips that I have total confidence in. The best plan in the first few weeks is to bet small, take a back seat and see who comes to the forefront, showing themselves to be worthy of backing regularly. I find it takes around 4-6 weeks to be able to gauge this sort of thing on a general basis. You see all teams in action, see strengths and weaknesses and can assess odds better. After this probationary period I would think we will do around 4 Accumulators a weekend:
- A Safe 4 Fold, around 4-8/1
- A Negative/Positive 4 Fold – 2 of each, with odds of around 10-15/1
- A 4 Fold with all + Odds (Evens or Over) that will pay around 15-20/1, which we are very confident on
- A 6 Fold, with higher risk teams, that will pay big if it comes in, between 100 – 300/1. Last season we had a 202/1 6 Fold that came in, a 500/1 8 fold that was a whisker from winning and countless 6 folds that were the odd goal from winning.
For the first few weeks I can imagine there will be a safe 4 fold, a decent odds 4 fold and a big 6 with odds of around 100/1, depending on the amount of value we see across the markets.
As usual we will provide a Rolling Acca, which will consist of many differing markets, with 6-8 Bets. Although safer, I am not one who likes the £10-£1000 in 70 bets, because somewhere down the line you will get a stinker, and all that time would be for nothing. We like it all in one weekend, all or nothing! We had at least 5 between February and May that were either one game or one goal from winning, one being a last minute equaliser from Aberdeen against Celtic. These are fun but quite frustrating!
To summarise – our advice for the first month or so it keep the stakes low, with higher rewards. Many people lost hundreds last season betting on the likes of Man Utd early doors, with nobody expecting them to be as bad as they were. I have seen eye-watering bets with people risking thousands on games with odds of 1/3 or 1/4 thinking they were nailed on, only to lose. From a personal standpoint, I will be doing a £5 6 Fold each weekend, looking for odds of around 1-200/1, picking varying markets. Once we hit October, it will be a lot clearer and we will be better off saving the bigger money until then.
A big no-no to do is the League Cup – you may well get some decent odds but there are so many shocks. Last season several Premier League teams were knocked out by League 1 or 2 teams, or even going to extra time. It’s one of those things where you whack a massive 6-8 fold on with a few quid, sit back and enjoy football at it’s best – full of shocks, and smaller teams giving a big team a scare. Way too stressful to have serious money on! The winners from the first 4 weeks are usually the bookies, so being extra careful limits their profits and takes more off them!
Anyway, I hope this has helped – if you have any queries or questions please send us a message on Facebook or Twitter, or for more personal matters, email us at Will@Accutipster.com for Tipping queries, or James@Accutipster.com for other questions. We are always here to help, whatever the question – we have undergone the process of building a blog over a year, and made rookie errors, and from that have been able to help others who are doing the same thing.
Don’t forget to sign up to our Fantasy Football league on the official Premier League website – This season we are offering prizes, from £30 for 1st to £5 to the 3rd place person. Click this link to sign in and join up!
Best of luck in the new season!
Will & James