An average day yesterday, with the NAP failing by one goal (no thanks to Alexis Sanchez who could have squared for an easy 3rd, but chose to delay and shoot instead…) and the Cards bet winning in the last minute thanks to Matias Fernandez’ red card.
To start with today, here is my preview of the weekend’s action in the European Championships (Qualifying) where value is hard to come by, especially in regular win-draw-win markets. However, I have 9 cracking bits of value from the 20 odd games!
1. Cyprus Win Both Halves @ 6/4 vs Andorra (1945 KO)
Cyprus won the reverse fixture 5-0, and with Cristofi (their top scorer) in good form, I wouldn’t bet against a similar scoreline, as Andorra have conceded 20 goals in 5 games so far. Last time the first half ended 3-0, and the 2nd 2-0. Cyprus can still get a playoff spot if all goes well and they surprise a few teams like they did against Bosnia – unlikely but a heavy win here would help.
2. Holland Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 21/20 vs Latvia (1945 KO)
Holland sit 5 points behind 2nd placed Iceland, and even more behind the Czech Republic. With Turkey playing Kazakhstan, they really need a win – and one similar to the last, which was a 6-0 win in the reverse game. Depay, RVP and Huntelaar look set to start up-front, and with the creativity of Wijnaldum, Sneijder and Clasie behind, I can see another 3-5 goals for them.
3. Turkey-Kazakhstan Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens (1700 KO)
This is a very well priced bet – last time out it ended 3-1 to Turkey, and the Kazakhs are better at home than away (4-2 loss to the Czech’s was a cracking game). Both average around 3 goals per game so far, so I’m expecting a few here – Turkey + Over 2.5 Goals is currently 11/8, but this for me is a safer option incase of a shock loss/draw
4. Czech Rep-Iceland Over 2.5 Goals @ 7/5 (1945 KO)
In the Czech Republic’s 5 games so far, all have gone BTTS, and all have gone over 2.5 goals. In the reverse, it ended 2-1 to the CR. Iceland have conceded just 2 goals so far, both in that game mentioned. They have scored double figures now, so are a massive threat going forward, and very good at the back. Both will be angling for the win as that would all but guarantee them a place next summer.
5. Denmark-Serbia BTTS @ Evens (1945 KO)
Denmark are nearly there now – another win or two and that’s them in France next summer. Serbia are struggling a little, but are still a dangerous side. The previous meeting in this group ended 3-1 to Denmark, so this bet is not unlikely. In Denmark’s last 5 home games, 4 have been BTTS – while in 3 of Serbia’s last 5 have also been BTTS.
6. Hungary DNB @ 6/4 vs Finland (1700 KO)
Hungary are 3rd in their group, and looking like getting a playoff place with N Ireland and Romania too far ahead. They are a stern team, with them giving very little away in defence. Finland are pretty poor, losing 2-0 to Estonia and drawing 0-0 with Yemen recently. The worst I can see is a draw, so DNB @ 6/4 looks amazing value!
7. England Over 1.5 Team Goals @ Evens vs Slovenia (1700 KO)
England have bagged 15 goals in 5 qualifiers so far, and only failed to score 2 in the Estonia game. Against Slovenia last time they needed to concede first to find top gear, racing into a 3-1 lead. Slovenia are a shoe-in for a playoff place, with Switzerland likely to race clear of them in the final few games. With a few new players coming into the squad/team, there will be added incentive for those to impress, so I’m expecting another 2/3 goals from England on Sunday afternoon.
8. Switzerland -1 Goal @ 11/10 vs Lithuania (1945 KO)
Switzerland won this game 4-0 last time out, and are getting better. Lithuania have lost the last three group games, all by -1 goal at least. With Drmic, Shaqiri, Stocker and more leading the line, I’m expecting 3 goals minumum – and -1 goal @ 11/10 amazing value!
9. Spain Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 vs Belarus (1945 KO)
Spain should dispose of Belarus easily, like they did last time in 3-0 win. They were also paired for the World Cup quals, where Spain also won 2-1 and 4-0. Belarus are full of unknown’s, but still shouldn’t pose too much threat to the mighty Spain, and their army of talent. We could see Paco Alcacer get a start, with the Valencia striker in excellent form last season!
This is my top accumulator for the weekend:
- Switzerland -1 Goal @ 11/10
- Holland Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 21/20
- England Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1/1
- Spain + Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20
This pays around 18/1, and if you wanted a bigger acca – add these two for 87/1:
- Cyprus Win Both Halves @ 6/4
- Turkey-Kazakhstan Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/1
Best of luck – tips for today, and a NAP will be posted shortly.