Today brings around the Europa League final, a competition loathed by some, loved by others. The winner this season is granted a Champions League spot, which has made it so much more interesting this season. The two finalists this season are Sevilla of Spain, and Dnipro of Ukraine – the latter very unexpected, as the lost 3 of their 6 group games as well as looking like going out in most knockout rounds. Let’s take a look at how each arrived at the final:
Borussia Monchengladbach – W1-0 + W3-2
Villarreal – W3-1 + W2-1
Zenit – W2-1 + D2-2
Fiorentina – W3-0 + W2-0
Olympiakos – W2-0 + D2-2
Ajax – W1-0 + L2-1 (Away Goal)
Club Brugge – D0-0 + W1-0
Napoli – D1-1 + W1-0
So – two very different teams. Including all games, from Group Stage to now (Qualifying for Dnipro) Dnipro played 15 games, with 11 staying under 2.5 goals. Sevilla played 13 games, with 8 going over 2.5 goals. On the Goalscorers front, Sevilla had Bacca (5) and Gameiro (4) in the top 20, while Dnipro had nobody. That just tells you the obvious – Sevilla outscored sides, whereas Dnipro kept games tight and always nicked a goal at the right time, usually at home.
With so little football on today – this will be my only tip/tips – and here are my three top tips for this game, including my NAP:
1. Sevilla Over 6.5 Corners @ 11/10 (NAP)
Having looked at Sevilla’s stats for corners, I was not convinced. However, having looked at Dnipro’s rate of conceding corners, I was a lot more confident. Here’s why:
Sevilla: 23 Corners in 6 Group games (Ave of around 4), 49 corners in 8 KO games (Ave of 6.125)
Dnipro: 30 Corners conceded in 6 Group games (Average of 5), 59 corners conceded in 8 KO games (Average of 7.5)
Against the better sides, Dnipro have conceded a lot! 14 and 10 vs Napoli, 7 and 8 vs Olympiakos, 5 and 7 vs Ajax and 2 and 6 vs Brugge. Sevilla are extremely attacking – and Dnipro’s defensive nature could see them having a lot of the ball, and with pressure often comes corners/free kicks.
2. Dnipro -1 Card @ 6/5
For those unsure what it means – same as goal handicap, but with cards – so as long as Dnipro get 2 more cards than Sevilla, it’s good! I looked into cards in the KO stages in depth, and found something interesting on the amount of cards (first number is cards for Dnipro/Sevilla):
Olympiakos: 4-4 (L1), 4-4 (L2)
Ajax: 4-2 (L1), 4-1 (L2)
Brugge: 3-2 (L1), 2-1 (L2)
Napoli: 2-0 (L1), 6-3 (L2)
Gladbach: 2-4 (L1), 5-4 (L2)
Villarreal: 2-3 (L1), 0-7 (L2)
Zenit: 1-3 (L1), 2-3 (L2)
Fiorentina: 2-3 (L1), 1-3 (L2)
So, a total of:
Sevilla: 15 for, 30 against
Dnipro: 27 for, 16 against
Bar one game, Sevilla never racked up more than 2 cards, whereas Dnipro outscored their opponent in every match bar the Olympiakos one, where it was a tie in both legs. With quicker players like Gameiro, Bacca, Reyes, Deulofeu, Denis Suarez etc Sevilla players are more likely to be taken out by the slower, Ukrainian defenders, while I can also see Dnipro also getting frustrated if they are losing.
3. Sevilla Win + Under 2.5 Goals @ 12/5
Personally I can only see the game going one way – I think it will be a low scorer, I’ve gone for goals before in this competition and usually been let down. Like mentioned early, 11 of Dnipro’s 15 games in this season’s competition have stayed under 2.5, while just 5 of Sevilla’s 13 have. Combined that’s 16/28 between them, 55%.
There is not a great deal of value on the Goalscorer market – Gameiro and Bacca both 21/20 A/T – something Jamie would probably agree on – Bacca FGS @ 7/2, depending on who starts, but I think it will be him!
Best of luck for the game – any questions, just give us a shout on Twitter or via Email (Will@Accutipster.com)