Football Tips // 05.04.16


Hi all

A mixed evening last night – one Cittadella goal from both 4/1 and 10/1 variations of the two games. Freiburg won 3-2, giving 11/8 and 3/1 winners, while as mentioned Bassano won 2-0, meaning the other two lost out marginally.

Today – one pick from the Champions League and one from Scotland:

Barcelona vs At Madrid: BTTS @ 6/5 (Champions League, 1945 KO – NAP)

The top two from La Liga meet once again in the latter stages of a big competition! Barcelona lost to Real Madrid, for their first loss in 39 games on the weekend, while At Madrid put 5 past a weak Betis side. 3 of the last four meetings between the two have ended with BTTS, so for me 6/5 on the odds is generous.

Barcelona at home – 6 BTTS in their last 10, while At Madrid have had just 4/10 away from home, which is pretty amazing as they win most games. They do have tendencies to concede when it’s least expected – losing their last away game to Gijon, but have lost just 3 games in their last 15 (once to Barcelona). With both sides pretty much fully fit – I’m expecting a close fought cracker, and whoever comes out on top over the two legs will take it into the final set of games as these two are separated by just 6 points in the league!

Rangers vs Dumbarton: Rangers Over 3.5 Team Goals @ 13/8 (Scottish Championship, 1945 KO)

It’s not often I delve into the Scottish leagues, and not often I go for such a big goals tally for one side. However, Rangers at home are very good, and since they scored 6 goals against Dumbarton last time, away from home – and have such a good record for Over 3.5 Goals.

These two have met 8 times (pretty much all since Rangers were relegated) and Rangers have won all 8. 6 of the 8 they have scored at least 3, while 5/8 have been 4+. They have won 4-0, 2-1 and 6-0 this season against them, while at home have a record of 10/6 for Over 3.5 Goals (match total) – but looking at their home record this season, including cups – 23 games, 14 times they have scored 3+ and 9 times they have scored 4+. Dumbarton conceded 6 and 5 in their last two away games, and have not scored themselves in 6 away ties. Obviously the standard in Scotland isn’t great anyway, but when you have a mis-match like this, with the stats like this – take advantage!

Over 3.5 Match Goals is 11/10, but quite frankly if Dumbarton haven’t scored in 6 away games against some of the others, they probably will score today…it’s sods law! I fancy Rangers to put 5-6 past them, but if you want less risk, go for the match goals incase it ends 2-2 or 3-1.

A Rangers win would also all but secure promotion back to the SPL – so they’ll want it done in style!


I only fancy the one double today – to go for added risk would be silly as I don’t see many additional markets in either game that warrant the extra risk.

  • Barcelona vs At Madrid BTTS @ 6/5 + Rangers Over 3.5 Team Goals @ 13/8 = 4.5/1

Either later today or early tomorrow I will post my gambit for Bet365’s risk free inplay bet offer – it’s looking thin picking for it, but I’ve found a way of making between £13 and £50 guaranteed profit!

Best of luck