Mixed day for both Will and Sam in their tips. The Over 3.5 Goals (Helmond vs Almere) which looked the most likely ended 2-0, despite over 30 shots, while the Jong Ajax/PSV game landed late on. In Sam’s, the Argentine game won inside 35 minute, but the Mexican game ended 0-0.
Today, it’s looking quieter than usual. Kieron is away with work so there are no BTTS tips. Anyway – here are my selections for the day:
Dresden vs Rostock: Dresden -1 Goal Asian Handicap @ 1/1 (Bundesliga III, 1300 KO)
Despite letting me down not so long ago, Dresden feature once more as they have a win record at home of 11 wins in 14 games. Most of these are heavy wins, and when you look at Rostock’s away record that reads W2/15, there is huge confidence. They have played 2 of the better home sides of late – Magdeburg and Koln, and lost 4-1 and 5-1. 1/1 for the Asian Handicap is amazing value in this, as the last 3 meetings have ended 2-1, 3-1 and 3-1.
Vasas vs Ferencvaros: Ferencvaros -1 Goal Asian Handicap @ 21/20 (Hungarian NBI, 1700 KO)
Ferencvaros are another favourite of mine, since their away record is pretty fantastic. They win most weeks, and have a win ratio away from home of 75% (9 wins in 12). Most try and play for a 0-0 against them, hence why they win on occasions 1-0, but Vasas are in decent form of late, and should come into it with confidence. Their two meets since Vasas have returned to the NBI have ended 5-1 and 2-0, so there will be that in the back of their minds. This market gives great value, as the win is just 1/2, but a 2 goal win with a one-goal void safety is perfect.
Stevenage vs Northampton: Northampton Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1/1 (English League Two, 1500 KO)
This for me is one of the bets of the weekend! Northampton have scored 2 or more in 10 of their last 13 away games, and are playing a Stevenage side on the back of four straight losses, and 10 in their last 15! On top of that, they sit just one place outside the relegation, while Northampton are set to confirm promotion as they are miles ahead.
Alcorcon vs Real Oviedo: BTTS @ 1/1 (Spanish Segunda, 1700 KO)
I end with a fairly risky one, but this fixture ended 3-2 last time out. Oviedo are looking to achieve the impossible, and earn their way up to the La Liga a few years after nearly becoming bankrupt. They have lost 2 on the spin, but score plenty away from home – two 2-2 draws in their last 3. 6 BTTS’s in their last 10 away games, while Alcorcon have just four, but have scored in 8 of their last 10 home games, with Oviedo scoring in 7/10 away. Spanish 2nd Division is not big for goals, hence the good price.
NAP: Northampton Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1/1 (Win @ 1/1 equally good value)
Double: Northampton Over 1.5 @ 1/1 + Dresden -1 Asian Handicap @ 1/1 = 3/1
Acca: All four @ 16.5/1
Best of luck