I must admit it has been a very frustrating start to the season – despite an overall hit rate of between 55 and 60%, it’s been a lot of ‘close but not close enough’. A goal or corner off 3-4 of yesterday’s tips landing – while a red card in the Brighton match finished it off, as well as Ibrahimovic having a goal chalked off.
Things will improve – August is usually a tough month, a little bit of uncertainty and a lot of teams we expect to do well starting slowly – Newcastle losing their first two games an example of that! Sheffield Wednesday also – looking very poor so far!
Yesterday we stuck with England – and it didn’t pay off. Usually on a Sunday I’d pick out a large double, a BTTS + Win bet – but no such value about today. There is a lot of good value in the European leagues – so that is where we shall be today!
Zilina vs Trencin: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/1 (Slovakian Fortuna Liga, 1800 KO – NAP)
Zilina have started the season well, sitting 2nd with 4 wins from 6. Trencin have been very iffy, winning 3 and losing 3 – a total of 19 goals! Trencin have though gone through round after round of qualifying for either the Champions or Europa League, and just fell short of the group stage. Now they are out, their league form should pick up!
Against Zilina, they have played out four crackers in their last four meetings – scorelines of 3-2, 4-2 and 5-2 (all to Trencin) and a 4-1 loss last September. Both are very good offensively, and clearly have each others’ number when it comes to defending.
Ried vs Austria Vienna: A Vienna Win @ 13/10 (Austrian Bundesliga, 1800 KO)
Ried have had a terrible start to the 16/17 season – 4 losses in 5 games, the only points coming against Sturm Graz (typically when I had backed them!). Just the one goal scored, and nearly a dozen conceded! Vienna have also had a mixed start, but have made the group stages of the Europa League which is a huge bonus, after an impressive win against Rosenborg.
They have had 8 or 9 games this season, and all but one has been BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals – however with Ried being so poor, I fancy Vienna to win this, as they have done in their last two, which they won 3-1 and 5-0 – the latest in May this year.
Brondby vs Copenhagen: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10 (Danish Super Liga, 1500 KO)
A battle of the top two! Brondby are on fire, scoring 22 goals in 6 games – at least 2 per game, and 4+ on three occasions, including 7-0 and 4-0 wins. Copenhagen on the other hand have scored 16 and conceded 3 – and lie 2nd.
Both however have played in Europe this week, so there could be a touch of legginess. Both have fine attacks, and sturdy defences so far – but against one an other – I reckon there should be fireworks! End to end attacking game, very evenly matched and hopefully a shed load of goals!
Villarreal vs Sevilla: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (La Liga, 2115 KO)
Well, what can we say about Sevilla last weekend! 6-4 winners against Espanyol, with almost all new signings scoring – Vietto, Ben Yeddar, Kiyotake, Sarabia and Vasquez all getting a debut goal, and Ganso/Konoplyanka on the bench to add insult to injury! A new found attacking flair…which Unai Emery had in spells, but better defensive work.
Villarreal are missing key players such as Soldado, Bakambu and Cheryshev – but still harbour a threat with some terrific attacking players. They have had a mare over pre-season and their Champions League qualifying…and with a 1-1 draw with a poor Granada side, they need to get their league campaign underway.
Sevilla are notoriously poor away, but given their attacking prowess, they should score for me!
NAP: 1 @ 1/1
Double: 2 + 3 @ 5/1
Treble: 1-3 @ 10/1
Accumulator: All Four @ 22/1
Best of luck for the day!