Football Tips // Champions League // 12.04.16


The two games taking place today couldn’t be more different! On the one hand, you have Real Madrid vs Wolfsburg. The Germans lead 2-0 from the first leg, and stunned the La Liga giants with a smash and grab style first half that nobody saw coming. In the 2nd game, you have Man City vs PSG. 2-2 in the first leg, a leveller midway through the 2nd half gave Man City a vital 2nd away goal, meaning PSG have to come out and play, with anything less than a win, or a 2-2 draw or higher leading to their demise and exit.

First leg’s are often tight are hard to call – just look at how the Wolfsburg game played out! It determines how the 2nd leg will be played, and in the case of the game mentioned, a need for goals for Real Madrid. They will also know that one goal conceded means they need 4, so caution is a must. Same goes for the Man City game – an early goal for the home side will leave PSG needing two.

Betting wise – both hard to call. Nearly every market is priced in favour of Real Madrid – they are expected to win, and dominate the game. This makes it hard to find value, but I believe I have.

Real Madrid vs Wolfsburg: Wolfsburg Over 2.5 Corners @ 1/1

This may seem an odd choice, but Wolfsburg will more than likely be in counter attack mode. Real will have most of the ball, but Wolfsburg have a steel side, attacking threats all over – but are far from great away from home. On the flip side, what  I have seen is Real Madrid concede a lot of corners at home. They have conceded 50 corners in their last 10 home games, and Over 2.5 on 7 occasions.

When it comes to Wolfsburg, they have had a total of 43 corners in their last 10 away games, and over 2.5 in 9/10 of those. Towards the end, if it is still in favour of Wolfsburg, they will timewaste potentially in the corner flag positions and that could win them corners. On the flip side, should they find themselves needing a goal, they will be attacking and likely to force corners. Madrid aren’t all that in defence, so with the likes of Draxler, Arnold and Schurrle to name but a few (Ricardo Rodriguez…that’s it, I promise!), they have enough to cause problems as they did in leg 1.

Manchester City vs PSG: Man City Over 5.5 Corners @ 11/10 (NAP)

The 2nd of my picks is also in the corner market, for good reason.

At home, in their past 10 home games – Man City have racked up 79 corners, and over 5.5 on 7 occasions (hitting exactly 5 twice). They dominate play and even when struggling, continue to rack up corners – the majority of the time getting between 8 and 12. PSG struggle away, in terms of corners. Against even the weakest sides, they still concede plenty. In their last 10 away games, a total of 57 and over 5.5 6 times – and when you consider this is against the likes of Guingamp, Troyes and Bastia, you see where I’m going with this. City are better than anyone they have faced, and with them conceding 6+ in 6 of the 10 most recent away fixtures (hitting exactly 5 twice) – I think it’s a great bet!

Picking a winner in this game is tough. Priced 9/5 (Man City), 13/5 for the Draw and 8/5 (PSG) is almost impossible. Being at home, and with 2 away goals in their favour – they are slight favourites to go through. Never write PSG off though, and like said in the above game – circumstance can sway markets like these, so weather they are in the box seat or needing a goal, corners are a big possibility!

As a double, this pays just over 3/1. Both bets are priced up now on Bet365.

The latter game has Bet365’s usual risk free offer to accompany it, and using that I have devised a way to make between £30 and £40 of risk free profit! Take a look here

Best of luck