So – another week has flown by and we are at the point where the Premier League kicks back in. I have been doing specific Premier League tips since the end of February, and despite overall not being great over the last couple of months, these have been very good! In 28 tips, I have had 19 wins, 2 voids and 7 losses – and some of the losses have been hard to stomach! That’s a 73% success rate which in one of the most unpredictable leagues in the World, is good!
Anyway – onto this weekend. For me, I’m going to stick with Saturday’s games again as the likes of Sunderland vs Leicester really could be a lottery. 11/10 for the away win looks great value, but you never know when Sunderland will have a corker of a game, or even nick a point. Liverpool vs Stoke and Spurs vs Man Utd similarly either don’t provide good enough value in a safe market.
Man City vs West Brom: Man City Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 11/8 (1730 KO – NAP)
If you look back over the last 5 meetings, home and away – Man City have scored 3 in all of them, while winning 8 in a row. They had a great result midweek vs PSG, while since the return of Kevin de Bruyne they have looked very good, and to be fair a little before that too. With KdB supplying the bullets, they look a different side, and with a home record of 10 wins in 16, and the pressure off as the title has gone – I think City will run riot and win by 3 or 4. WBA are decent, they can often be hard to beat – but with them being pretty much safe – the need to really push themselves.
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth: Bournemouth Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 5/4 (1500 KO)
Villa look dead and buried – no two ways about it. Pretty much 15 points off the nearest non-relegation spot with only a handful of games remaining. Bournemouth on the other hand look full of verve in the knowledge that they are as good as safe, and players returning sich as Max Gradel – I think they will put a couple past a poor Villa back four, who have lost 9 of their last 10 games – conceding 2 or more in 8 of those!
Watford vs Everton: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/4 (1500 KO)
This one ended 2-2 back in October, and with Everton being brilliant one week and shocking the next, they are the perfect team for this market. Away from home, they have won a lot of games recently, but often concede. In their last 10 away league games, they have scored in 8 and conceded in 7, while Watford have scored in 8 and conceded in 5. The pressure is on Martinez as results of late have often been fairly poor, and with the likes of Lukaku and Barkley in the team they can come to life and score with ease at any time.
At the same time, Watford are a very strong home team. They have impressed this season and with Deeney and Ighalo leading the line, you’d fancy them to score. Both’s record for this market is hit and miss, but as you know form means nothing in this league!
Southampton vs Newcastle: Southampton -1 Goal Handicap @ 13/10 (1500 KO)
My final pick for the day is Southampton -1 Goal Handicap against a Newcastle side looking increasingly resigned to relegation. As a long-time fan of the North-east side, I can tell you that a load of the players look like they simply don’t care – which is an issue the club have had for years now. Relegation and a fresh start is probably what the club needs to be frank!
To the game. Southampton have Rodriguez, Shane Long and Charlie Austin all fit, and against a leaky defence that could be a huge factor! In their last 5 games against Newcastle they have won 4-0 twice, 2-1 and drawn a couple. They have also won the last 3 home meets, 4-0, 4-0 and 2-0. In their last 10 home games, 5 wins including 3-2 against Liverpool and 4-0 against Arsenal. Against a jittery Newcastle back four, and a side struggling to find the next especially away from home – I think this is the most likely result. A fairly big win, with a nice clean sheet.
As the most optimistic of fans, the worst case scenario is a 2-0 loss. If Newcastle want to win this, they must breach one of the best defences in the league, with ex-keeper Fraser Forster in imperious form!
My best option for a double would be the following:
- Man City Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 11/8 + Southampton -1 Goal Handicap @ 13/10 = 4.5/1
The Accumulator pays 28/1 on current pricing, but this will vary between bookies.
Best of luck