Football Tips // Saturday


Morning all

Today brings about the Champions League final – pretty much the show-piece of the European season, and one that brings the curtain down on what was an amazing year of football for all concerned. We put a Preview up, which I believe has some very good value bets, so click to take a look at that!

Today, there is not a lot else, but I have found three games in South America to go nicely with one pick from the CL to make a good looking Accumulator:

1. Barcelona-Juventus Over 4.5 Cards @ 11/10 (Champions League Final, 1945 KO)

As explained in the preview, these games can get a little tense, and one poorly timed tackle can spark a brawl. Add to that you have the likes of Tevez, Alves, Vidal and Liechsteiner that regularly go into the referee’s book – I can see 6-8 yellow cards, and if one side take an unassailable lead, the game could sour, as the Dnipro-Sevilla one did near the end once Sevilla scored a 3rd. As with Bacca in that Sevilla game, there can be a card or two for over-celebrating, and in such an event you can see the odd shirt coming off meaning referee’s will have to bring out the yellow!

A note on this – the Bet365 offer is back – so place a bet on anything pre-game upto £50 and your first in-play bet (upto the same amount) is risk free, and is returned if it loses!

Dani Alves A/T Card @ 2/1 is my top selection in that regard, if you can find the market, which SkyBet are offering

2. Bahia Win @ 11/10 vs Bragantino (Brazilian Serie B, 2030 KO)

Bahia sit in the top four at the moment after an excellent start to the season, and face a Bragantino side who have lost 3 of their opening 5 games. Bahia are unbeaten, with 3 wins and 2 draws. This should be a low scoring game, with both averaging 1-2 goals per game so far this season.

3. Santos-Ponte Preta Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (Brazilian Serie A, 2230 KO) (NAP)

When these two meet, there is usually goals. In 4 of their last 5 meetings, there has been 3-5 goals. Just 6 games into the new season (inc Cup games) and both have a 50% record of Over 2.5 Goals, which is pretty good in Brazil. They played in the State Championships earlier this year and Preta won 3-1, while at the same stage last season Santos won 4-0. Ponte Preta sit 2nd in the league with 3 wins and 2 draws so far, averaging 3.2 goals per game, while Santos have started badly, and are much lower in the league, averaging 2.7 per game.

4. San Lorenzo Win to Nil @ 7/4 vs Belgrano (Argentine Primera Division, 2200 KO)

San Lorenzo at home this season – 6 wins in 7 games, 3 conceded, 5 wins to nil, 4 in a row – and just 8 conceded in 14 games so far this season, with 10 wins. Home form is everything in South America – the top teams always win. Belgrano may have won 3 of their last 5 away, but against lower opposition. It’s 1st vs 6th, and San Lorenzo won the last meeting 4-0, and with their home form and strong defence, WTN looks value @ 7/4!


1. NAP: 3 @ 11/10

2. Double: 2 + 3 @ 3.4/1

3. Treble: 1, 2 + 3 @ 8.8/1

4. Accumulator: All Four @ 24.5/1

The two games I’m most confident on are the Brazilian duo, while the riskiest in the Win to Nil bet, due to the fact that one goal effectively ends it despite all the stats, that can happen…

Best of luck for the day!