Final day of the Premier League season is upon us, while we have a whole host of football on today. Value is at a premium, so I have just about managed 4 tips. Here is all the reasoning and statistics behind each:
1. Palermo-Fiorentina Over 10 Corners @ Evens (Serie A, 1400 KO) (NAP)
This game has a good history of corners. Here are the stats for each sides last 10 home/away games:
Palermo (H): 16, 12, 11, 11, 9, 11, 8, 14, 4, 8 (104, average of 10.4 corners per home game)
Fiorentina (A): 12, 14, 8, 13, 8, 6, 13, 10, 14, 5 (103, average of 10.3 corners per away game)
In their last 4 meetings between the two – 10, 16, 14, 15 (an average of 13.8 corners per game)
Palermo have a very attacking side, while Fiorentina still need wins to guarantee a Europa League spot. Should be a high scoring game, with a lot of corners! In our corners bet yesterday, which was over 11 in the Inter-Genoa game, there was 17, and I am more confident on this one than I was on that one!
2. Man Utd Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 5/4 (Premier League, 1500 KO)
Man Utd have faced Hull 7 times in the Premier League, and have won all 7. There is a remote chance Man Utd can get 3rd, if Arsenal lose and they win well. In 6 of the 7 wins, Man Utd have scored 2+, so for me the price is ridiculous. Van Gaal does not like losing, so will probably not send out a weakened team, with plenty of players having a point to prove. Hull are in pretty poor form, losing their last 3 games, while Utd have won 3/5 away from home
3. Piast-Podsbeskidzie Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (Polish Ekstraklasa, 1430 KO)
This game has a good history of over 2.5 goals, and both of these are in decent form. Piast are excellent at home. In the Relegation stage (in the 17 games played against each of the 9 teams, a little confusing as the league is split after so many games…). Here is both over/unders records:
Piast: 10 over, 7 under (Overall) – 7 over, 2 under (Home)
Podsbeskidzie: 10 over, 7 under (Overall) – 5 over, 3 under (Away)
In the last 5 meetings, 4 went over 2.5 goals. This is a very good bet!
4. Viborg HT-FT @ 7/4 vs AB Copenhagen (Danish 1st Division, 1400 KO)
I found this rather late today, but this is cracking value! Here’s why:
- Viborg are top of the league, and won 11 of their 16 games HT-FT
- Copenhagen have lost 16 games, 11 of those they have been HT-FT
- In the last three meetings, Viborg have won to nil and HT-FT, 1-0, 2-0 and 3-0
I’m actually pretty confident on all of these. All statistically excellent bets – with Viborg the outstanding value. The first three are all brilliant bets in my opinion, and all Evens or above. Due to it being the final game of the season in the PL, I’m going for the following:
1. Double: 1 + 3 @ 3.2/1
2. Treble: 1, 2 and 3 @ 8.2/1
3. All Four @ 25/1
Now – I have had a lot of high value Sunday doubles over the last month, and have found a great 15/1 double, that if teamed with Viborg HT-FT, is an excellent 44/1 treble:
1. Elfsborg Win + BTTS @ 13/5 vs Atvidabergs (Swedish Allsvenskan, 1630 KO)
In 6 of Atvidabergs 9 games this season, they have lost + BTTS. In 8/9 games, BTTS has landed. 13/5 is an incredible price, with Elfsborg having a few Win + BTTS’ this season. 29 goals in Atvidabergs 9 games, 17 conceded. They cannot defend for toffee!
2. Sturm Graz Win + BTTS @ 7/2 vs Admira (Austrian Bundesliga, 1645 KO)
These two faced off two months ago, and Sturm won 3-1. Their home form is terrific, however their away form is not brilliant. With two games left they are fighting it out for a Europa League spot with Altach and Wolfsberger, currently in 3rd place, but 2 points separate the 3 of them. Admira are 3 points off relegation threatened Neustadt, but they have Rapid Vienna today and have a much worse GD than Admira, so they are pretty safe I would say. Their home form over the season is the worst in the league, even that of Neustadt. Sturm have an iffy defence, but score a lot, with 4-4 and 2-2 draws recently. Both have something to play for, so I think both will go for it. 7/2 a stonking price!
A cheeky punt on all 6 pays 410/1…you never know!
Best of luck for the day!