I don’t think yesterday could have been more unlucky if we tried! Zagreb were 3-0 up after 25 minutes and cruising. They then gave away 3 penalties, saved 2 of them and still blew a 3 goal lead against a 10-man Molde side, but still qualified. Levadia dominated much of the game, but only bagged the solitary goal in the last 5 minutes to grab a 1-0 win…seriously sometimes you wonder what you’ve done wrong to deserve luck like that!
Today looks decent, I’m not keen on the Qualifiers really but there is some value in a couple of games – 2nd leg’s are decidedly dodgy as some of them are pretty much decided by the first leg, and others. Going for a risky Draw No Bet for the NAP, but think it has legs:
1. Steaua Bucharest Draw No Bet @ 13/8 vs Partizan (1930 KO, NAP)
Steaua are better away from home – I’ve always maintained that. They laboured to a 1-0 on the weekend, but rested a few for this game. In the first leg it was very even but towards the end Steaua looked like winning it. Partizan are good at home, but if you look at who they play, it’s hard to get a feel for them. Steaua need to score, as Partizan have an away goal, so it should be quite interesting.
2. Qarabag -1 Corner Handicap @ 11/8 vs Celtic (1730 KO)
Qarabag, even away from home, took Celtic for a rough ride in the first leg. On corners, they won 4-2, while in their previous Champions League home game, they won 9-0. After the first leg I can see them beating Celtic at home this time around – and as we saw in the tie with Stjarnan, Celtic can concede a lot of corners quickly if a bit of pressure is applied, which is something they don’t get often in the SPL
3. Astana-HJK BTTS @ 11/8 (1500 KO)
Although a total bore-draw last time out, I think this could go BTTS. Astana are so much better at home than away, with 6 BTTS in their last 10, while HJK away – 7 BTTS in their last 10. They will know one away goal could win them this tie, and away from home pressures could flourish in Kazakhstan. Astana are favourites though in this early kick off
4. Sparta Prague-CSKA Moscow BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (1745 KO)
The first leg ended 2-2 in what was a cracking match. Now, in the 2nd leg, CSKA know they will need to score at least one as Sparta have two away goals and will qualify with a 0-0 or 1-1 draw, with a 2-2 draw taking it to extra time. Both sides are very attacking, but susceptible at the back, the 2-2 proving that.
With this type of football being so unpredictable, I would say my favourite double would be the top two @ 5.25/1, while the Accumulator pays around 32/1. Unless backing just the NAP, I’d advise small stakes, or even a cheeky Lucky 15. It’s been a rough few weeks since that Europa League blinder, with so many tips being let down by the odd goal, or a red card.
Coming up later today we have our League One package – Overall Preview, Top 10 signings and 10 to watch this season! I am very excited for the new season, and having done my research on all the leagues, we are in a great position to pick the best value from the off!
Best of luck