Football Tips // Wednesday + Thursday


Morning all

There is nothing really on over the next few days bar a bit of South American football which can be very profitable – and after the international break I look forward to anything that isn’t international football after last night!

3 great tips – and then Spain struggle to a 1-0 win over Macedonia. NAP won but the rest was ruined by Spain, who tippy-tapped it around for 45 minutes after winning the first half. Swiss Over 3.5 Corners won just after HT, Slovenia Win + Under 2.5 @ 15/8 won (1-0) and Montenegro won 2-0 vs Moldova. Hopefully some of you cashed out…because Spain were just useless!

Anyway – onto today/tomorrow – all games are either late tonight or early tomorrow morning and all are in the Brazilian Serie A (Bet365 have it down as Campeonato):

1. Atletico MG-Avai Over 11 Corners @ 11/10 (2330 KO, Wednesday – NAP)

MG get a lot of corners at home – in their last 10 games they have had a total of 123 corners, at an average of 12.3 per home game. In their last match with Avai, there was a total of 18 corners, and in Avai’s last 10 away games there has been 104 corners at an average of 10.4 – mainly due to the fact that teams have been so dominant, although there were several games with corners between 12 and 18, and then some between 6-10. Pretty much with Avai there are either a hell of a lot, or barely any. The key thing in the previous game is that despite having a 2 goal lead for much of the game, MG did not shut up shop and stop playing – they continued to attack and scored another couple in a 4-1 win. Whereas in Europe teams once leading 2/3-0 tend to stop playing and play the win out.

2. Santos-Sao Paulo Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (0200 KO, Thursday)

In Santos last 10 games overall, 5/10 Over 2.5 Goals and won 7/10. In their last 10 home games, 9 wins and 6 Over 2.5’s. Sao Paulo have an away record that is not brilliant, but 6/10 Over 2.5’s both overall and away. The last two meetings between these two have been scored of 3-2 and 2-1 – but with red cards rife in this region of the footballing world, don’t rule out either side losing a man or two and the other side running riot.

3. Atletico PR Draw No Bet @ 1/1 vs Figueirense (0100 KO, Thursday – Next Best)

PR have won the last three meetings between the two, and not lost in four against this team. They have won 5 of their last 7 away games, and in general are in good form. Figueirense are in average form, hovering just above the relegation spots, while PR are looking to finish in the top 4/5 teams this season and have a good chance as they currently occupy 5th – Figueirense on the other hand have lost 3 in their last 5 and are 3 points above the relegation zone. Good odds, and a safety net.

4. Internacional Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 9/4 vs Palmeiras (2330 KO, Wednesday)

Internacional have won 6 of their last 7 home games, including a 6-0 routing of Vasco last week. Over 2.5 isn’t usually their thing, but against Palmeiras – it should be. The last two home meetings have been 3-1 and 2-1 wins, while Palmeiras have a strong record at losing + over 2.5 goals away from home, with four losses in their last 5 games and three of those were 2-1.

The last game is the riskiest, as you can tell with the price. My preferred double is 1 + 3 @ 3.2/1 (2 + 3 if you cannot get the corners markets), while the Acca pays around 27/1. If you cannot get the corners betting, go with the DNB (3) as that offers a bit more security. With corners there are either plenty or none – but I’m confident that Avai will pick up 3-5 corners while MG will get 10+ and really wipe the floor with them.

Best of luck