What can I say about yesterday…astounded. 3 teams with 70-80% win rates at home had nightmares against 3 teams who struggle to win away from home, and with a few red cards thrown into the mix, as well as a BTTS + Over 2.5 game that statistically had about an 80% chance of landing – all went pear shaped! I can certainly be held responsible for picking duff games, but when 3 teams with some of the best home records in Europe all fail at once – that’s just bad luck!
Anyway – onto this weekend and four games picked out to cover the next two days:
Juventus vs Napoli: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/4 (Serie A, 1945 KO)
This is the battle of two in-form teams. Juventus have won 14 straight Serie A games, while Napoli have won 8 and drawn 1 since they last tasted defeat in the league back in December. If you look back through their recent meets over the last season or two, you will find the last four games finished 2-1, 3-1, 3-1 and 3-2 – with a mix of both winning.
If there is one team that can really threaten this Juventus run, it’s Napoli. They are scoring very freely at the moment, and despite Juve keeping 7 consecutive clean sheets in league and cup, I’d expect the Naples club to bag at least one today.
AEK Athens vs Olympiakos: Olympiakos Win @ 6/5 (Greek Super League, 1730 KO)
This is another battle of the top two. AEK sit 2nd with 42 points and are having a great season after being promoted – but 5 losses, 4 against teams other than Olympiakos – give me great doubt they could take down a team unbeaten in 21 games – which includes 20 wins. The current Champs are on 61 points, 19 clear of AEK. With 9 games left, they are not far from another title and with a 4-0 win under their belt against AEK this season already, I think they will sweep them aside, something like 2-0. At home, they would have been 1/2 or lower to win this, and with their away record being equally fantastic – I think this is great value.
Dynamo Dresden vs Werder Bremen II: Dresden -1 Goal Handicap @ 1/1 (Bundesliga III, 1300 KO)
Dresden are again the big favourites for this one, and at home they should be after a streak of 9 wins in 11 games. In that spell, 4 of those have been by -1 goal handicap. They won 3-0 against Mainz II in their last home game and will be looking to continue that run. Bremen’s 2nd team have been very hit and miss, but away it’s mainly been miss. 6 losses in their last 10 and of those 4 have been by -1, with between 3 and 6 conceded. With Dresden’s solid back four, and their equally impressive attacking strength I’d hope and plump by guess for around a 3-0 scoreline.
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (Austrian Bundesliga, 1530 KO)
In their 15 games leading up to the winter break, Rapid had a record of 13 BTTS + Over 2.5’s. Over 90%! Austria’s record was not quite as impressive, but they scored and conceded at a similar rate and most games were at least BTTS.
Since the start of 2014, they have played 8 times. The scores have been as follows: 2-1, 5-2, 4-1, 2-1, 3-2, 2-2, 1-0 and 3-1.
6 successive BTTS + Over 2.5’s – and a total of 32 goals, an average of 4 goals per game. This is usually a feisty game, but not in the ‘River Plate vs Boca Juniors’ style of ‘during the fight, a game of football broke out’. No – this as you can tell is usually an entertaining game and I can’t see why the tradition of this bet winning would end.
As an accumulator, this pays in the region of 22/1.
Best of luck