After a beaut of a day on Tuesday, it’s gone steadily downhill since. Red cards, missed penalties and general shocking performances – just unreal. A goal our way in most games would have seen us win, and when the likes of Dortmund have 20 odd shots and 65% possession against the likes of PAOK and don’t win, you know its not your day. Tonight – two sides had red cards early on and lost comfortably, and the two others were going well but halted – such as Monchengladbach II conceding 3 minutes before HT to blow the HT-FT bet.
Anyway – here is my preview – just 3 for each day as value is at a premium:
1. West Ham Win @ 7/5 vs Sunderland (1500 KO, Premier League)
West Ham are strangely better away from home – beating Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool on their travels. Sunderland have lost 4 in a row now and look awful, conceding a lot of goals and some of the new signings are looking a waste of money. A specific player to pick out for the game is Dimitri Payet – looking an excellent attacking force, assisting and scoring. 9/4 to score A/T, and 4/1 for Score + Win. Takes the free-kicks and his long range shooting is up there with the best. Under Bilic they look very good – complete opposite of the football under Allardyce. 7/5 a great price for this!
2. Zrinjski Win @ 1/1 vs NK Vitez (1430 KO, Bosnian Premier League)
Zrinjski are top of the league, and have won 6/10 games – scoring just 11! Their defence is incredible, conceding just 2. They have won 3/4 away games so far, and face a Vitez side who have lost 3 of their last 5 games as well as 6 in 10 this season. In the last 3 meetings they have won 1-0, 2-0 and 2-0 and will go into the game with great confidence – after they beat Sarajevo, one of the Bosnian greats!
3. Nice Win @ 1/1 vs Nantes (1900 KO, Ligue 1)
Nice are transformed! From relegation candidates last season to challenging for the top 8 this. Hatem Ben Arfa has been key, scoring 6 goals in 8 games and being the catalyst in their success. They have scored 13 in their last three games – putting 6 past Bordeaux and 4 past St Etienne – and they both play European football. Ben Arfa is 7/4 A/T, and 3/1 for Score + Win.
4. Man Utd Draw No Bet @ 7/4 vs Arsenal (1600 KO, Premier League)
Man Utd are looking pretty good at the moment without really playing well. Arsenal on the other hand look pretty average and are conceding a lot of goals, and making mistakes that top teams would punish. At 7/4 for Draw No Bet, I think it is unbelievable value since Arsenal have not beaten Man Utd at home since January 2011, with 2 draws and 2 losses since. William Hill are offering 8/1 on Martial to score and Man Utd to win – regular price of 9/2. Good value – and a little safety. Should be a cracker as they always are!
5. Trelleborgs -1 Goal Asian Handicap @ 6/5 vs Oddevold (1600 KO, Swedish Division 1 – Sodra)
This is my first dabble into the Asian Handicap system and to me it does look very useful. Usually a -1 handicap would mean you need a 2-0 win, but in the Asian system, a 1-0 win means you get a refund/the bet is voided. Trelleborgs -1 Handicap is 8/5, but the Asian Handicap is 11/10 – better value and safer. Trelleborgs have won 9 of their last 10 away games, which means with the asian handicap you would have lost once, and won 4 further times with 5 voids (they have won a few 2-1). Oddevold have lost 4 games in their last 5, and with Trelleborgs terrific strength in blowing opponents away – teamed with their away record and a 4-1 win in the previous game – I think this provides excellent value!
6. Sogndal Win @ 1/1 vs Asane (1400 KO, Norwegian OBOS-Ligaen)
Sogndal are top and have won 15 of 25 games this season (6/12 away from home). Asane are in decent form, but have not played anyone of Sogndal’s standard – and are conceding, on average – 1.5 goals per game. Sogndal’s away form at the moment is not brilliant but they really should win, after beating them easily 3-0 and 2-0 in their previous meetings in recent times.
My four-fold accumulator from these picks for the weekend would be:
1. Trelleborgs -1 Asian Handicap @ 6/5
2. West Ham Win @ 7/5
3. Man Utd DNB @ 7/4
4. Zrinjski Win @ 1/1
This pays 22/1.
All 6 pays around 88/1.
Best of luck! Let’s hope this gets us out of the rut we’ve been in for the last couple of days!