NFL Tips // Week 11


Morning all. A decent week for us last week but one that was close to being a hell of a lot better! 2 out of 3 up on the main bets. Our Nap, the New England Patriots after trailing for most of the game held a one point lead in the 4th quarter. Driving down near the Giants goal they first had a TD called back for a penalty before Tom Brady was subsequently intercepted in the endzone to deny us the treble. A somewhat shorter preview this week but hopefully some value picks.

Arizona Cardinals -4.5 @ 10/11 (NAP) 1.30am Monday BST

In what could legitimately be described as a potential Superbowl 50 preview, the Cincinnati Bengals travel to the Arizona Cardinals for Americas Sunday night prime-time matchup. Both featured in last week’s primetime games also. The Cardinals scored an impressive road victory holding off a late Seahawks surge to win in Seattle. Meanwhile the Bengals lost for the first time this season after a limp 10-6 home loss to Houston on Monday night football.

This defeat further enforced the notion that Bengals Quarterback Andy Dalton just can’t get it done in the big time games. His record in prime time is now 4-8. Despite the talent in the Bengals backfield, their running game has failed to ignite this year leaving it up to Dalton to beat teams with his arm. On the road against Arizona who are tied for the lead in interceptions with 14 it’s hard to trust him to get it done.

The Cardinals offence is firing on all cylinders. Carson Palmer has already thrown for 23 TDs this year while RB Chris Johnson trails only Adrian Peterson in yardage this season. Against a Bengals defence which has struggled to contain the run that could spell trouble. In Bruce Arians time in charge they are 16-4 at home and all 7 wins this season have come by 7 points or more. Given the strength of their offence and their propensity to turn the ball over on defence I see them at least a touchdown better here also.

Carolina Panthers -7 @ 5/6

Last weekend Washington QB Kirk Cousins had the best game of his career to date, throwing for 4 touchdowns and a perfect 158.3 passer rating (the only one in the NFL this season.) However it’s one thing to do this against a porous Saints defence and quite another thing to do it on the road in Carolina. Along with the aforementioned Cardinals they are the other team to have had 14 interceptions this year and their defence has been a massive part in their perfect 9-0 start.

The fact that the Redskins have allowed over 150yds rushing in their last 5 games does not bode well for them here. Not only will they have the impressive Jonathon Stewart to contend with but in Cam Newton, the league premier dual threat Quarterback who been beating teams with both his arm and his feet. Expect Washington’s 8 game losing streak on the road to be extended and the Panthers to score another double digit victory.
The line on this game has begun to swing to 7 and a half points in places so I’d advise to get on early and keep the touchdown on your side.

Dallas Cowboys -1 @ 10/11

After beginning the season 2-0 the Cowboys have now endured the misery of 7 straight losses. The major reason for that was the loss of Quarterback Tony Romo towards the end of that second game. In his absence both Branson Weeden and then Matt Cassel failed to fill his boots yet amazingly the Cowboys still have an outside shot at the playoffs since the New York Giants lead the division with just 5 victories.

Dallas is a more talented team than the record would suggest and 5 of those 7 defeats were by a touchdown or less. Romo, now returning, has a 14-2 winning record in his last 16 starts going back to the beginning of last season. Provided he’s not too ring rusty he should provide a spark for star receiver Dez Bryant and TE Jason Witten. Miami are no great shakes and in normal circumstances this line should be much higher.

Denver Broncos Win @ 5/6 (Match Betting)

A multitude of injuries have contributed to Peyton Manning having the worst season of his NFL career. His body has finally succumbed and Brock Osweiler comes in for his first career start. In truth this could be just the spark the Broncos need to arrest a 3 game slump after winning their first 7. The entire Denver offence was predicated on the threat of beating teams deep, something Manning no longer seemed able to do. Without this it was all too predictable and they were unable to exert any kind of running game. They still have a heck of a lot of high powered pieces on offence and if Osweiler can avoid turnovers he could revive them.

It certainly won’t be easy on the road against a resurgent Bears team. Especially considering that team are lead by their ex coach John Fox and ex quarterback Jay Cutler who both would love to get one over on the Broncos. However cornerback Aqib Talib will return to a Denver defence that started the season so dominantly but that was worn down by the number of turnovers that Manning was committing. This is a very high risk pick but sometimes you have to go with your gut!

My favoured double is Arizona/Carolina at odds of 5/2 with Dallas thrown in for the treble making it up to almost 6/1. The accumulator price is 11.5/1

Best of luck!