With another weekend upon us, and just a few games to go in most leagues (unless you’re in Spain, where it will be suspended after this weekend due to disagreements over the TV Rights) which makes it quite hard to pick out value. With some teams out of the woods, and nothing to play for – it could mean some games are dead rubbers in terms of betting and imperiously difficult to predict.
As usual – 10 games picked out that I feel are good value:
- West Brom @ 15/8 vs Newcastle (Premier League, 1500 KO, Saturday)
West Brom are pretty much safe, and play a Newcastle team devoid of any confidence, form or even a manager on this planet – John Carver recently stated he think’s he is the best manager in the league despite losing 8 games straight. They only need another point or so to get safety, in theory, but that can be hard. WBA have won 2 away games in a row, and with Newcastle missing a good portion of their first choice defenders, Berahino should have fun. The options are either youth team players or drafting in midfielders to the back four.
- Duisburg Win @ Evens vs Erfurt (Bundesliga 3, 1300 KO, Sunday)
Duisburg are in the top couple at the moment, and on the brink of a return to the 2nd division. They have won 3/5 away from home, and 4/5 overall. Erfurt have lost 4/5 both overall and at home – last time out against Bielefeld was a lovely 4-0 loss, which was Evens and one we picked out. Duisburg have won the last 5 games vs Erfurt – so mentally Erfurt could be wary of this.
- Betis Win @ 13/10 vs Mallorca (Segunda Liga, 1100 KO, Sunday)
Betis have wo 4/5 games overall, and 4/5 away from home. They are not a long way from promotion back to La Liga, however this stop in the league after this weekend could hinder them a little. Mallorca have lost 3/5 overall, and 2/5 at home. Last time out Betis won 1-0.
- Basel Win @ Evens vs Zurich (Swiss Super League, 1500 KO, Sunday)
Basel have won 4/5 games overall, and 3/5 away from home – and playing an out of form Zurich side who have lost 4/5 at home and 3/5 overall. In the last 4 league meetings – Basel have won all four and again, all four have gone over 2.5 goals – so Over 2.5 + Win @ 17/10 looks great value!
- Targu Mures Win @ Evens vs Gaz Metan Medias (Romanian Liga I, 1630 KO, Sunday)
Amazingly, despite only just being promoted this season – Targu are top of the league and lead Steaua Bucharest by 2 points with a few games to go. They have won 4 of the last 5 games, and 3/5 away from home, mainly all to nil. They even beat Steaua 2-1 a few weekends ago. Gaz Metan have drawn 4 of their last 5 games overall, and lost 2/5 at home.
- Dinamo Zagreb Win @ 1/2 vs NK Zagreb (Croatian HNL, 1600 KO, Saturday)
Zagreb seem to have won yet another league title – 14 points clear with 4 games to go. NK have little to play for now, and with their record against Dinamo, I see an easy win. Dinamo have won 4/5 overall, and W3/D2 away. NK have lost 3/5 overall as well as at home. Dinamo have won most of their recent meetings – 3 of the last 5 away, and 3/5 overall.
- Lisbon Win @ 8/11 vs Estoril (Primera Liga, 1700 KO, Sunday)
Sporting have won 4/5 overall and 3/5 away, with the non-winners being draws. Estoril have drawn 3 of their last 5 games, while losing 2/5 at home. Last time out Lisbon won 3-0, and with them still fighting for 2nd spot with Porto, this is a must win game.
- Samara Win @ 8/11 vs Sakhalin (Russian 1st Division, 0600 KO, Sunday)
This is probably the earliest KO time we have ever tipped on! Samara are on the brink of promotion back to the Premier League, and facing a team they beat 5-3 this season. Samara have won 4/5 overall, and 3/5 away, with a couple of draws in those stats. Sakhalin have only lost 1/5 overall, but 2/5 at home and have mainly been playing mid-table sides.
- At Madrid Win @ 7/10 vs Levante (La Liga, 1100 KO, Sunday)
Atletico have won 3/drawn 2 of their last 5 games both overall and away from home. Levante have lost 2/5 overall and at home. Last time out Atletico won 3-1. Madrid are still fighting with Valencia for the 3rd automatic Champions League spot, so this is an important game before the break in all Spanish football due to the TV rights issues.
- Lyon Win @ 8/11 vs Caen (Ligue 1, 1600 KO, Saturday)
Lyon have won 4 of their last 5 games, as well as 3/5 away from home. Caen have lost 3/5 both overall and at home – as well as having a poor record against Lyon, who are fighting for the league title with PSG, being just 3 points behind with 3 games to go. Another win will ensure they get automatic qualification for next seasons Champions League, something they have not had for a few years now!
These are my 10 picks for the weekend – the majority on Sunday like last weekend, but what I see as value all the same.
Best of luck