This is the final proper weekend of the month, with International football taking centre stage for the first time in 4 months. Seems like only yesterday we were saying ‘Thank god! No more for 4 months!” – but hey, we all love it really. The last few of these have been fully backed with stats, but teams simply have not performed like we have expected, so hopefully a little different this weekend. Here are my favourite 10 games, in no particular order:
1. Arsenal Win @ 7/10 (-1 Goal @ 17/10) vs Newcastle (1500 KO, Saturday)
Newcastle have 13 fit outfield players. No Cisse or Coloccini, their strongest players at the front and back. Only one fit senior Centre Back, and in Mike Williamson, not someone you really want on the pitch with Ozil, Giroud, Sanchez and Cazorla running at you. Arsenal are in top form in the league with 5 wins out of 5, and 3/5 wins away. Newcastle have lost 3/5 overall, and 2/5 at home. Arsenal have also won the last 5 meetings, probably more – pretty much all to nil and often -1 or -2 goals. This, -1 that is, my NAP for the weekend!!
2. Dortmund Win @ 4/6 vs Hannover (1430 KO, Saturday)
Dortmund are getting back to normal form. Won 3, drawn 2 overall and won 2/5 away, with a couple of draws in there. Hannover have not won in 5 games overall, and just 1 win in 5 at home. Dortmund have won 4 of the last 5 games between them as well!
3. Vitesse Win @ 7/10 (Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5) vs Go Ahead Eagles (1730 KO, Saturday)
Chelsea B, as they are known in Holland, are in very good form. Won 4/5 overall, and 3/5 away from home and face a very poor Go Ahead Eagles team, who have lost 4/5 overall and 3/5 at home. Only 3 meetings have been 3-0 (Vitesse) and a couple of 2-2 draws, so usually goals!
4. Chelsea Win @ 1/2 (-1 Goal @ 23/20) vs Hull (1600 KO, Sunday)
Chelsea have won the last three games by -1 goal, 2-0. They have won 3/5 overall, with two draws chucked into the equation – as well as 3 wins from 5 away. Hull look in fairly good form, Brucie has got them away from the relegation zone, but if you look at who they have played (Villa, QPR, Sunderland etc) you see they have not really had anyone that good. Chelsea have the league to focus on now, so should win rather easily. I can see them knocking 3/4 past Allan McGregor!
5. Panathinaikos Win @ 8/11 (-1 Goal @ 19/10) vs Gas Veria (1730 KO, Sunday)
Veria have lost 4/5 games overall and 3/5 at home – they are one of several teams in the Greek Super League that are really struggling. They have conceded 4 goals in their last 4 losses! Panathinaikos are chasing Olympiakos down in the title fight, and will not want to let up. Both have scored in the last 4 games, with Pana winning 3 and drawing 1. In terms of form – very good, with 4/5 wins overall and 3/5 away (one loss to Atromitos the only blip). -1 Goal an excellent shout @ 19/10
6. Burton Win @ 11/10 vs Tranmere (1500 KO, Saturday)
Jimmy Floyd’s Burton are flying, even when down to 10 men they managed to comeback and win 2-1 at Southend. 3 wins from 5 overall and 3/5 away, they are certainly a team hoping for promotion. Tranmere on the other hand have struggled since dropping down to League 2, and sit rather perilously in the bottom few. 4 losses in 5 overall, and 3/5 at home – cannot see them getting anything here!
7. Real Oviedo Win @ Evens vs Lealtad (1600 KO, Saturday)
The Spanish lower leagues have been a happy hunting ground for us recently. Some rather big teams like Murcia, Oviedo and Llieda playing a lot of poor/part time sides. Oviedo have financial backing and are romping away with the league. They play a side near the bottom of the league, who are in a good patch of form, like Hull, against poorer teams. Oviedo have won 3/drawn 2 both overall and away, and beat this side earlier in the season 4-0. Very good odds considering…another top tip!
8. Marseille Win @ Evens (Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 6/5) vs Lens (2000 KO, Sunday)
Marseille have not been great recently, a lot of draws with only the odd win. However – Lens are dreadful. 4 losses from 5 overall, and 3/5 at home. With the likes of Gignac, Ocampos and Thauvin in the attacking ranks, I cannot see anything other than a comfortable Marseille win (beat Toulouse 6-1 last weekend…so they taste blood!) – I wouldn’t risk Win to Nil, but -1 @ 2/1 and HT-FT @ 17/10 worth considering.
9. Monaco Win @ Evens (Win + Under 2.5 Goals) vs Reims (1600 KO, Sunday)
Monaco stunned Arsenal by dumping them and their former manager out at the RO16 stage yet again! With 3 wins from 5 overall, and 4 wins in 5 away, they should continue where they left off last weekend. Reims are struggling at the moment with mainly draws and losses in their most recent games. 4 out of the last 5 meetings have stayed under 2.5 goals, with three of Monaco’s away wins recently all being 1-0.
10. Gimnastic Win @ 6/5 vs Cornella (1700 KO, Sunday)
Another Spanish lower league game, and another ex-La liga side dominating the league. They have won 4/5 both overall and away – very good form! Cornella are unbeaten in 5 overall but have lost 2/5 at home.
Those are my 10 games and main reasoning behind each. A very good group of bets in my opinion! 5 Saturday games, and 5 Sunday games – 5 Evens or above, 5 below Evens. An excellent mix!
Tips shall be up later tonight, around 8pm…Until then,
Best of luck