So here we are again! These weeks are flying by…will be Christmas before you know it! Same as usual – I have picked out what should and probably will be my tips for Saturday and Sunday. 5 for both days, with one being cut when it comes to the tips posted each day. Enjoy!
1. Chelsea -1 Goal Handicap @ 8/5 vs Newcastle (Premier League, 1730 KO)
Chelsea are starting to gain a little form – despite the ban for Diego Costa they are looking much sharper and are getting the winning feeling back! They face a Newcastle team devoid of confidence having been beaten twice at home inside a week to Watford and a 2nd string Sheff Wednesday side. They have many players with good qualities but none who have the fight to earn them their first league win of the season.
Newcastle always seem to be a bogey side for the Londoners , with 3 wins in the last 5 games. But this time I think the pace of Hazard, Pedro, Remy and Willian (if played) will be too much for a makeshift back four that could include Mike Williamson as Massadio Haidara is injured, with Chancel Mbemba moving across to left back. Daryl Janmaat also has a torrid time against pacey players, already being sent off once this season.
2. Lincoln-Torquay BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (National League, 1500 KO)
These two are among, if not – the top scorers in the league. Torquay have a total of 44 goals scored and conceded in just 12 games – nearly an average of 4 per game. Lincoln are nearer 3 goals per game with 35 in 12. Here are the key stats:
• Lincoln – BTTS in 9/12 games, with + Over 2.5 coming in 4/12. BTTS in 6/6 at home
• Torquay – BTTS in 9/12 games, with + Over 2.5 coming in 7/12. BTTS + Overs in 5/6 away
Despite Lincoln’s tendancy to draw 1-1, looking at the back four of Torquay fills me with confidence as they have conceded as many as 7 at times this season to newly promoted teams! A solid bet!
3. Juventus-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 23/20 (Italian Serie A, 1945 KO)
Juventus don’t quite look the same side as last season, losing Vidal, Tevez and a few others while Mario Mandzukic has joined from At Madrid. Napoli have started very well, with 15 goals scored and 6 conceded in their 6 games this season – over 2.5 in 5 of those! Juve have a chequered record for this market, but against Napoli it reads 4 Over 2.5’s in the last 5 meetings with scores of 3-1, 3-1, 3-2, 2-0 and 3-0. Potentially the one to leave out come Saturday as I have a serious trust issue with Italian teams!
4. Celta Vigo Win @ 11/10 vs Eibar (Spanish La Liga, 2105 KO)
Vigo have started the season like a house on fire! Beating Barcelona 4-1 a few days ago and winning 4 games out of 5, drawing the other. Eibar have had an easy-ish start, picking up 2 wins and a couple of draws. They lost 2-0 to At Madrid last time out, and I feel will start to slide down the table once bigger and better opponents take the 3 points. Last time out in April, Vigo ran out 1-0 winners. A good omen? Maybe…
5. Malmo -1 Goal Handicap @ 11/10 vs Halmstad (Swedish Allsvenskan, 1500 KO)
Malmo have been on our list for a while (the bad one…) so for them to come off it must be exceptional value. They have beaten Halmstad in 4 of the last 5 meetings overall and 5/5 away from home, with most of them coming at -1 goal handicap. Their form has improved recently, so I’m happy to take a chance on them again given the facts and figures. Halmstad are 10 points from safety with 5 games remaining – while Malmo are 4th and within a few wins of the top three – so both have motivation to win the game, but I feel Malmo will have too much.
6. Haugesund Draw No Bet @ 1/1 vs Sandefjord (Norwegian Tippeligaen, 1700 KO)
Haugesund may not seem in great form, but look at their away games and you will be surprised. Wins against Viking, Start and Molde makes for good reading. Sandefjord are pretty much down and out – rarely won all season and cannon-fodder for most of the league. Haugesund won the last game 2-1 a few months ago, while historically they have won 4 of the last 5 games between the sides
7. Lechia Gdansk-Zaglebie Lubin BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10 (Polish Ekstraklasa, 1430 KO)
Zaglebie are one, if not the highest scorers in the League if you combine scored and conceded. In their 12 games, including Cups – 7 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 7 of those, and 6 in 9 league games. Gdansk are not in amazing form this season but given Lubin’s defenisve frailties – and a decent record of 4 BTTS + Over 2.5’s in 9 league games – I think they will score especially at home. Zaglebie have also scored 2 or more in 5 out of 6 away games in all competitions which is a good sign for us Sunday.
8. St Etienne-Nice BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/8 (French Ligue 1, 2000 KO)
St Etienne have won 5 games in a row – while Nice are an average mid-table side. So why pick this bet? One man. Hatem Ben Arfa. Now he has returned to France and been given a free role he is back to his best, scoring 4 in 7 games for Nice and countless assists. Nice demolished a very good Bordeaux side 6-1 in the week, and with 26 goals in total in 7 games they are really doing well (16 scored, 10 conceded). St Etienne are usually good at the back, but have conceded in 3 of their last 5 games and in all three this bet has won. With an attacking menace like Ben Arfa, I can see both scoring very quickly, and quite frankly BTTS Both Halves @ 20/1 not looking a bad shout!
9. Antalyaspor-Sivasspor BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (Turkish Super Lig, 1500 KO)
Antalyaspor have come back up and signed some good players. Samuel Eto’o was the big signing, but Ronaldinho eventually turned them down in order to go back to Brazil. Onto the stats – Antalyaspor have had 4 BTTS + Over 2.5’s in their first 5 games, while Sivasspor have just had two but have had BTTS in 4/5. Goals in Turkish games are like buses – take’s a while to see one but then they come in clumps! One of my NAP’s during the summer was this same sort of bet, and was 0-0 after 75 minutes – it ended 2-2. In the last 5 meetings between the two this bet would have landed in 4 of them!
10. Slavia Prague-Sparta Prague BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/8 (Czech Synot Liga, 1400 KO)
No messing around – straight to the stats:
* Slavia have scored in 14 consecutive games at home, with BTTS + Over 2.5 landing in 8 of them.
* Sparta have conceded in 13 of their last 15 away games – with BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals landing in 9 of them.
In terms of meetings – not the best for this type of bet but Slavia are much improved over the last 6 months which should account for their home record. Sparta are leaking goals a bit, so this would not be a huge surprise if the home side won the game for the first time in a long time!
Tips should be posted for tomorrow either late tonight or early in the morning. Both myself and James are very busy this weekend so if you contact us, please be patient and we will try to respond ASAP. A 10 fold with these matches pays around 3650/1 – and the best we have had before is a few 9/10’s – might be worth a quid!
Best of luck for the weekend!