A rather poor showing today from my backed players. Nishikori should have won with ease but let Bolelli back in the 2nd set on a tie break, and well…it ended 3-2! Haas found his old form and dispatched of the highly rated Serbian I fancied, while the two other 3-0 set scores I liked were both 4-5 sets, with Zverev winning 3-2 and Thiem winning 3-1.
Today I have toned down the risk – one thing I saw yesterday is that pretty much any favourite priced around 1/2 went to 4/5 sets. Today’s tips are all massive favourites, and one games bet that I think should do well – a 12/1 accumulator and a 12/1 double suggestion:
1. Ivo Karlovic Win 3-0 (Sets) @ 6/5 vs E Ymer (NAP)
Karlovic is the Ace King! 45 aces in the last game I watched him play in tells you all you need to know. He barely ever loses serve, even against the best! In his last 5 games, Karlovic has beaten Tomas Berdych, Zverev and Giraldo, all good players. Ymer has won 8 of his last 10 games, but not really faced anyone in the top 75 or so. Karlovic should maul him!
2. Alexandr Dolgopolov Win 3-0 (Sets) @ 5/6 vs Kyle Edmund
We Brits are not hopeful at all for anyone other than Murray. Broady may have won, but Dolgopolov has beaten some cracking players recently including Nadal, Thiem and Andujar. Edmund will not cope with Dolg’s service or his unreadable drop shots and amazing slice. Fully expecting an easy 3-0 win.
3. Denis Istomin Win 3-0 (Sets) @ 8/11 vs Albert Ramos
Istomin comes into this on the back of winning one of the Aegon tournaments. He beat Querrey, Baghdatis, Mayer, Monaco, Stakhovskiy and Nicolas Almagro on the way to picking up his trophy. His ranking maybe below Ramos, but only due to lack of playing in the last 12 months, a bit like Tommy Haas.
4. Sergey Stakhovsky-Borna Coric Over 38 Games @ 6/5
I’m expecting at least 4 sets here, and several tie breaks. Coric has beaten Murray this year – and has met Sergey twice, both winning once each. In both’s last 10 – Coric has won 5, and beaten some top 25 players while Stakhovsky has lost 6 of the 10, losing to some unknowns’. He has also beaten the likes of Victor Troicki, so cannot be put down at all. Coric is the higher ranked of the two at 40, while SS is at 49. Should be a 5 setter in my opinion!
That’s all from me for today – Coric @ 11/4 is value, while I expect Groth-Sock to go to 5 sets. If you could get over 4.5 sets for both of those that would be a great bet! SkyBet have that market, 3/1 for the Coric game and 9/4 for the 2nd game, a 12/1 double!
Best of luck