2nd-5th August 2013 Statistics/Tips Analysis


The passing weekend marked the start of our Betting Tips and Statistics, with many of the “Second Tier” of European Football underway, with the Eredivisie (Holland) being the only one of the top leagues to start. There were games in the German, French and Dutch 2nd Divisions (although we tend to avoid those in the first few weeks) as well as Russia, Romania, Ukraine, Austria, Switzerland and of course the beginning of the Football League in England, not forgetting many more!

The statistics were published on the website on Friday around 2pm and the Tips Saturday morning at 9am – so the only games missed were Ajax and Anzhi, thankfully the latter did not make the cut into our tips, as they lost 1-0. The statistical results are as follows:

Odds On – 61% Win Ratio – 14 Wins, 6 Draws and 3 Losses.
Positive Odds – 32% Win Ratio, 9 Wins, 12 Draws, 7 Losses.

We are a little disappointed with the Positive Odds side of things, but with it being the first week in many leagues all the odds are above Evens, and with pre-season meaning little due to a lot of mis-matches in Friendly’s we go from the last 12 games of last season, and personal observations on transfers, injuries etc. Within 6-8 games we should get an inkling of who is where in terms of quality and who may struggle.
Although we did not select a winning bet – there were several close calls and a draw or two ruining what could have been a massive 145/1 win! Here are all 9 bets and the results from the weekend:

Odds On:
1. PSV (W), Metalist (D), Zenit (W), Feyenoord (L) – 2/4
2. Sparta Prague (W), Vitesse (W), Salzburg (D), Grasshoppers (D) – 2/4
3. Brugge (W), D Zagreb (W), L Warsaw (W), Basel (D), Twente (D) – 3/5
4. PSV/Prague/Metalist/Zenit/Salzburg/Basel/Dnipro (W) – 4/7

Positive Odds:
1. Watford (W), Wigan (W), Chesterfield (W), MK Dons (D) – 3/4
2. Cheltenham (D), Rochdale (W), Torquay (D), Walsall (W) – 2/4
3. Rijeka (W), Aalborg (L), D Bucharest (D), Lech Poznan (D) 1/4
4. Wigan/Watford/Chesterfield/MK Dons/Cheltenham/Torquay – 3/6
5. AZ (L), Spartak M (D), Rijeka/Bucharest/Poznan/Aalborg – 1/6

Not a bad start, three bets went the distance, with Cheltenham and Torquay leading in games, and MK Dons dominating against Shrewsbury, but could not find a breakthrough. As always happens early in the season, especially in Europe, some teams take time to get going, though Grasshoppers, Metalist, Basel and Salzburg were all playing inferior opposition but were caught cold, all having won several league games and sitting near the top. As with betting this happens, but in time and once the transfer window ends teams settle down and find rhythm, which is always good.

The wins will come! Though there were no wins the fact we were so close on several is a good sign that we are on the right track, just need some fine-tuning and some lady luck, and not things like Hulk getting sent off for Zenit for no reason – though they went on to win.