Last night was a rollercoaster! The first game, despite all the stats in the world – ended 0-0. Between two high scoring teams. Didn’t see that coming! The 2nd game couldn’t have been going any worse – against all odds Ternana were 2-0 up but under a lot of pressure. In the end they caved big time and Livorno scored a 3rd in the final 5 minutes to win 3-2 in the NAP!
Onto the Capital One Cup – always an advocate of smaller stakes for Cup competitions as, especially for us – we don’t see teams until 7pm and to post tips that late is just wrong. Having looked at the team news and managers comments, we have based our tips upon that and previous cup ties as well as league form. I don’t fancy any of the midweek foreign games so sticking with two from the Capital One Cup and two from the National League:
The first three are 1945 KO’s, while the Everton game is 8pm.
1. Gateshead-Halifax BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/1 (National League, NAP)
Right – straight to the stats – no two ways about it…
*Halifax – 5 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in their last 5 games, and 8/10 this season
*Gateshead – 3 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in their last 5 games, and 6/10 this season
*Last three meetings: 2-2, 2-2, 3-3.
This game is always full of goals! Gateshead are great attacking but weak at the back, and Halifax are very much the same. Huge value here!
2. Cheltenham-Forest Green BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (National League)
This is the battle of the top two in the league. Forest Green won 8 in a row but have lost their last two, while Cheltenham have lost one and only tend to concede against the better teams – bar Altricham, which is the only other time we backed them.
*Forest Green – 6 BTTS + Over 2.5 in the last 7 games, and 3 in 3 games at home – including Bromley, Southport and Lincoln.
*Cheltenham – 4/10 BTTS + Over 2.5 so far, but conceded two against Altricham and Dover. Against stronger teams should concede.
Forest Green seem to be able to score for England (it’s a saying…) but can’t seem to stop leaking goals. 4 vs Macclesfield on the weekend! Bar the first few games the rest they have conceded in. Should be a good game!
3. Man City Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (Capital One Cup)
Regardless of what side Man City put out in this competition – it’s going to be good! Sunderland are likely to keep a strong team out, so the chances of them scoring are quite great. City on the other hand will change things about. Patrick Roberts and Iheanacho look likely to start, while De Bruyne, Bony, Callabero and a few others will feature as they have not done this season so far. Otamendi could also start – and with little backup at RB/LB Kolarov and Sagna should keep their places.
City have won this game 3-2, 4-1 and 3-1 (a 2-2 draw as well inbetween) in the last 4 fixtures, and even with a few starlets on the pitch should wipe the floor with a poor Sunderland side. Advocaat is pretty much ready to leave as he has little gonads for a relegation fight – he’s only done well where money/the best players have been available to him (PSV, Zenit etc). I’d say 3-0 or 3-1 to City. Not seen comedy like this Sunderland back four since the days of Laurel and Hardy.
4. Everton Win @ 6/5 vs Reading (Capital One Cup)
I was going to go for BTTS + Over 2.5 again for this one, but having seen the team news it seems Everton are keeping a strong team out, while Reading are going to make changes, according to Steve Clarke. Forwards such as Orlando Sa and Nick Blackman could be rested – and with the squad players nowhere near as good or in form – and with Everton’s likely strong first team out – 6/5 looks massive value for the Toffee’s to win.
Peruvian Paulo Hurtado and Alec Fernandez are set to start for Reading, while for Everton new signing Leandro Rodriguez is in the squad and Gerard Delofeu is set to start. Can’t see Everton getting into a mess like in the last round this time!
Gateshead-Halifax is the NAP – and to reduce the risk of that blowing a nice double if it loses I would plump for the following for a double:
1. Double: 3 + 4 @ 4/1
2. Acca: 1-4 @ 20/1
Best of luck!