The Champions League group stages kick off, and with that – having taken a look at the first round of games, there is a distinct lack of value. Most games have an odds on favourite, so the value for me is either in the goals or handicaps.
Here are my top four bets, plus a goalscorer option for each of the four games:
PSG vs Arsenal: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 (19:45 KO – Tuesday)
Both sides have been defensively poor this season – PSG drawing their second game 1-1 after an opening 3-1 loss to Monaco. They have lost Luiz, Lavezzi and Ibrahimovic and replaced well in my opinion, but for me will probably concede to a good Arsenal team.
Arsenal will be missing a few players, especially defensively. Mertesacker and Koscielny are both out, while the likes of Sanchez will come back in after being rested on the weekend. Offensively, I think they will hurt PSG, but defensively they worry me. Always a good thing when it comes to goals though!
With Sanchez coming back in, I like him to score any-time @ 12/5
Dynamo Kyiv vs Napoli: Napoli Win @ 7/5 (1945 KO – Tuesday)
Napoli are a side I really like – offensively very strong with the likes of Insgine, Hamsik, Callejon, Milik and Mertens available to them. Defensively sound as well – Koulibaly and Albiol a solid centre back pairing with Ghoulam and Hysaj as full backs, with Pepe Reina in between the posts.
Kyiv are a hard to to beat, but have lost Aleksandar Dragovic for £15m to Leverkusen. They still have the likes of Yarmolenko and Gonzalez that can cause problems, but even then I still think Napoli are the better side.
Jose Callejon is an amazing 13/5 to score anytime – he bagged a couple on the weekend against Palermo, so will be high on confidence for the upcoming game.
Legia Warsaw vs Dortmund: Dortmund -1 Goal Handicap @ 1/1 (1945 KO – Wednesday)
This is a new-look Dortmund, with multiple players leaving over the summer. They have replaced well, with the likes of Schurrle, Gotze, Dembele and Guerreiro coming in. I’d say they are a bit more naive at times, but with youth on their side they should do well this season.
Legia just about overcame Trencin in the last round of qualifying – but for me are huge outsiders. When this game comes to Dortmund, the odds are likely to be below 1/8, so for a one goal handicap this is an astonishing price!
My pick for a goalscorer has to be Andre Schurrle – his record isn’t great, but with Marco Reus out, and Aubameyang a short price to score – Schurrle A/T @ 15/8 looks a high value bet!
Real Madrid vs Sporting Lisbon: Ronaldo First Goalscorer @ 12/5 (19:45 KO – Wednesday)
This is my only upfront goalscorer bet – but Ronaldo returned on the weekend and scored within minutes. He is likely to be on both free kicks and penalties, as well as being a menace from the left wing. Lisbon are hard to gauge – their league is very un-competitive, baring the top 2/3 teams.
Last season in the Europa League they did concede a few goals, and despite signing Bas Dost after losing Islam Slimani, Real should have a fairly simple win against them. Given the match markets show a 2/9 odds-on win price, 12/5 for Ronaldo to score first is a great price!
Tips for the upcoming days will be up in the next few hours.
Best of luck!