Decided to split the CL and EL bits up this week – Europa looks decidedly iffy this gameweek. Here is our view on 11 games and the markets we like on those:
BATE vs Porto – Porto won by 5 or 6 last time out against BATE, who have basically been cannon fodder in this group. 4/7 is value for just the win, but -1 @ 8/5 and even Race to 3 Goals @ 5/2 look interesting too.
CSKA vs Roma – same as above, Roma scored 6 last time out against CSKA – don’t expect such a big scoreline, but Race to 2 @ 8/5 is value, and 6/4 for the win is also great value. After CSKA drew at City, they will have some fight in them, so going for goals markets rather than the win could be the way to go, as proven on the weekend.
APOEL vs Barca – only one goal in this game last time, although Barca were in poor form then. This time, in better form, away from the expectant home fans – they could take the shackles off and really play. They are not guaranteed 1st spot yet, so need a win, hopefully no resting players this time!
Schalke vs Chelsea – The german side are struggling a little in the Bundesliga, and are conceding goals all over the place. Really fancy Chelsea to win this, 5/6 value, with Race to 2 @ 21/20 a good bet.
Man City vs Bayern – City are in a bad run of form, Bayern could really maul them. They are in good form, City’s defence looks suspect. -1 @ 12/5 and Race to 3 @ 11/4 could well be great bets! 21/20 is an amazing price as it is for the win too!
PSG vs Ajax – similarly with Barca, PSG will want top spot. Ibra is back, and although their defence looks suspect, I would back them to beat Ajax well, -1 10/11 a good price.
Basel vs Real Madrid – Real are pretty much qualified, so may rest players. They have won their last 5 away games by -2 or better, and beat Basel 5-1 last time out. Would stay safe with this one, -1 @ 6/5 my pick for best bet, with Race to 3 @ 6/5 also being decent value. BTTS could be a great bet too, as Real have issues defending sometimes.
Malmo vs Juventus – Juve should win this, but they can often be a team to let us down. 1/3 for the win decent value, -1 @ 10/11. Malmo, at home, nothing to lose – could be an iffy one. Would advise small stakes if this is included in any bets.
Ludogorets vs Liverpool – if Liverpool want to qualify, they need to win this game. It’s literally a must-win! If they win, by a few goals, and Basel lose to Madrid, they will be within sight of qualifying – a draw against Basel might be enough. 6/5 Race to 2 + Evens for the win are good value.
Arsenal vs Dortmund – both are missing a lot of players through injury – Dortmund are missing Reus, Hummels, Subotic and more. Arsenal similarly short at Centre Back. With Sanchez/Welbeck, I feel Arsenal could take this game. 7/5 great value.
Anderlecht-Galatasaray – Unsure who will win this, but both will want a EL place. BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals looks good @ Evens.
1. Porto/Chelsea/R Madrid/PSG/Barcelona – 6/1
2. Roma/Chelsea/Arsenal/Liverpool – 25/1
3. Porto -1/Roma Over 1.5 TG’s/R Madrid -1/Barcelona -1 (-1 = Handicaps) – 23/1
Double – Porto -1/Real Madrid -1 (Handicaps) – 4.75/1
Best of luck