So, it’s finally time for the kick off of the Copa America! We have done 10 of 12 previews, with 2 to come this evening, but more importantly, tips for the first game…
Chile vs Ecuador
It’s difficult to go off the form in Friendlies, which is all these two have played since the World Cup. Both have played differing teams, some of which have been the same. Chile have lost to Iran, Brazil and Uruguay of late, beating the likes of El Salvador, USA and Venezuela. They have been conceding sloppy goals to poor sides (such as Iran and Bolivia) so it puts doubt in your mind over their defence. Ecuador are no pushovers, getting a result against France in the World Cup last year, and more recently holding their own against Brazil, Argentina and Mexico, with narrow losses to all three.
Felipe Caicedo has not made the trip, and he was dangerous for them in the last year or so – but with Valencia, Bolanos, Montero and more they are not going to lie down. In the last three meetings of these two, Ecuador have won 2 (3-1 and 3-0), while Chile won the last 2-1. Here are three bets based on extrapolated data from games since the world cup:
1. Over 2.5 Goals @ Evens (NAP)
I fancy both to score, but just incase, this should cover it (could get a 3-0). Ecuador have a very iffy defence, it may have plenty of pace but lacks concentration sometimes and it shows, conceding in 6 of their 8 games since Brazil 2014. They are good on the front foot, even bagging one against Argentina – and as mentioned Chile have similar issues, losing 3 times in their last 5 games. Chile are host nations – so pressure will be on them, but with Vidal and co they should do the job – I fancy a 2-1
2. Over 4.5 Cards @ 6/5
South American games tend to be tetchy. Late tackles fly in, overreactions occur and referee’s usually intervene with a couple of yellows. In the last three meetings between the two, there have been 5, 6 and 6 cards, with several reds. With the pace of both sets of players, and the ‘diving’ that occurs often in SA, bookings should be on the cards (no pun intended…)
3. Over 10 Corners @ 21/20
Chile put teams under immense pressure – and their corners stats show. Against Brazil, they had 7 corners to Brazil’s 2. In their last 5 games there have been 54 corners, and a minimum of 9 in each. Ecuador get a few corners – in their last 5 games, including a 2 leg game with Panama – there have been a total of 57 corners, with under 11 only once, against El Salvador.
These are the three bets I see as good value, but like I said it’s hard to go off statistics when lineups have been chopped and changed against weaker/stronger opposition in Friendlies. I’ve tried to be as thorough as possible – so lets hope we start well! All these prices are from Bet365, but under different titles they will be on other sites (Booking Points, etc)
Best of luck