After a week away on the sunny shores of Antalya, I am back, refreshed and ready to tackle the semi finals! This is up a little later than usual as I could not access any betting sites from Turkey, and I only returned at 3am this morning.
Having looked at the markets, I have picked out 3 great value bets – the mix due to the fact that some might not be available on certain betting sites.
To me, it looks a game that will follow the suit of Portugal’s last two games – it really could go into extra time and maybe penalties! Both are potentially missing key players – Ramsay and Davies are missing for the Welsh through suspension, while Portugal could be without Pepe through a knock, and are without William Carvalho who is suspended.
Both have kept 2 clean sheets in 5 games, though I’d say Portugal have had the tougher games – Croatia and Poland are two tough cookies! That’s no disrespect to Wales, who outclassed Russia and Belgium, while edged past Slovakia and Northern Ireland who proved tough opponents. Wales really will miss Ramsay, who has been very influential, but they are very much a team and have the likes of Williams or Andy King to come into the team. Ben Davies is equally a big miss, but Chris Gunter is likely to step into the back three, with Jazz Richards filling the vacant right wing position.
Result wise – it’s impossible to call. Ronaldo and Portugal could have their best game yet and wipe the floor with Wales, or a Bale inspired performance could end the tournament for the Portuguese. Here are my three bets for the game:
Over 10.5 Corners @ 1/1
Portugal have had a total of 52 corners in the 5 games so far, not counting any in extra time as the markets don’t cover this. They have racked up 38, having 2, 6, 9, 10 and 11. Wales have had a total of 47 – but conceding 32 – including 7 to Belgium, 6 to Northern Ireland and 9 to England. With Portugal’s width, it’s a reason why I have gone for this. Wales earn a few each game, but I feel even if Portugal score first, they will still get 6-8 if not more.
BTTS @ 11/10
For those who don’t have Bet365, this is the next favourite bet for me. Both will be going for it, and with both missing key players I think there could be some vulnerability in both defence(s). Both have a record of BTTS in 3/5 in this tournament, and with Ronaldo and Bale on show, set pieces might have a telling effect on this bet (although Ronaldo has been awful with them so far, while Bale’s two efforts have been massively helped by two goalkeeping howlers). Both are aerial threats from set pieces, and with an expected high volume of corners and maybe free kicks, a good reason for BTTS.
Game Decided in Extra Time @ 6/1
Both of Portugal’s knockout games have gone to extra time, with the Poland game going to penalties. They have not won a game in 90 minutes yet, so you have to consider the mental affect of this on players. They won against Croatia in the 117th minute, and with some great subs to come on, and with greater tournament experience – if it goes this far I think they might edge it. A larger bet, but one that could come into play!
Best of luck