With this midweek being a reverse of the last set of games, I think its a perfect opportunity to exploit the bookies. We have picked 10 games where the teams we are backing hammered the team they played, in both Champions and Europa League. We have formulated 2 -1 Accas, which you can combine for near 500/1, and a Race to 3 Goals Acca that – with two additional games can go to 400/1.
These games, in terms of normal markets, have little value, but when you go -1 goal or even Race to 2/3 goals, they all are between 4/7 and 3/1. Here are the 10 games:
Atletico Madrid vs Malmo (Prev Result: 5-0)
At Madrid hammered Malmo at home, and the Swedes will have this at the back of their mind. When a team gets well beaten, they often go into a defensive state, like Sunderland did after being beaten 8-0, and lost 2-0. They attacking force is decreased, they even lost on the weekend! @ -1 Goal, 4/5 is an amazing price, and the other Bet is Race to 3 @ 29/20! Incredible value!
Chelsea vs Maribor (Prev Result: 6-0)
Chelsea are in excellent form! Last time out, it was 6-0 vs Maribor – and we expect no different this time around. If they win this, they are nearly qualified. In the 5th or 6th game, sometimes teams go off the boil because they have all but qualified, I think this is the best game to exploit. Maribor, like Malmo, will be weary. Can see a 3/4-0 win. The two bets we like are -1 Goal @ 3/4 and Race to 3 @ 5/4.
Real Madrid vs Liverpool (Prev Result: 3-0)
AWay from home, Madrid mauled Liverpool. Since then Liverpool have lost to Newcastle and drew 0-0 with Hull. Possibly no Sturridge, Balotelli firing on less than no cylinders. Bale is back, and Real are in amazing form. We like the following two bets: Real Madrid -1 Goal @ 4/7 and Race to 3 Goals @ 8/11
Barcelona vs Ajax (Prev Resukt: 3-1)
Barca will be hurting, and that is when they are at their most dangerous. Luis Suarez will start his first Champions League game against his former club, and with Messi and Neymar could run riot. We are not risking Race to 3 on this one, but we like -1 Goal @ 17/20, as well as Barca + BTTS @ 8/5 – there is a strong correlation with both scoring on most meetings.
Schalke vs Lisbon (Prev Result: 4-3)
Schalke will be looking to win this, as they have to face Chelsea again, and are not yet safely qualified. They are quite a long price to win this @ 5/2, but we like DNB @ 13/8 and Win or Draw @ 3/4
Monchengladbach vs Limassol (Prev Result: 5-0)
Gladbach are on an unbelievable run, longest unbeaten run in their history (I think). They won 5-0 in the last meeting, and after drawing the first two games, they need another win to have a chance of qualifying. We like -1 Goal @ 13/10 and Race to 3 @ 15/8
Tottenham vs Asteras (Prev Result: 5-1)
Spurs come into this off the back of a late comeback at Villa, with Harry Kane likely to start, as well as Erik ‘Rabona’ Lamela. Asteras had a difficult game at Olympiakos which ended 0-0. I don’t think Spurs will score 5 again, but around 3 goals is my guess. We like -1 Goal @ 19/10 and Race to 3 Goals @ 13/5
Besiktas vs Partizan (Prev Result: 4-0)
last time out in this game, 4-0 was the result. Partizan look like a team unlikely to qualify, and could now concentrate on the league. Can see Besiktas winning @ -1 (5/4) and Race to 3 @ 9/4
Villarreal vs Zurich (Prev Result: 4-1)
Luciano Vietto, Villarreal’s next, talented Argentine – had a great game against Zurich last time out. Villarreal are top of the group and will look to finish this off, and secure a top 2 spot. We can see them having a good game – 5/6 is a good price for just the win, but we like Race to 2 @ 23/20 and -1 @ 12/5
Sparta Prague vs Slovan Bratislava (Prev Result: 3-0)
Sparta lost 2-0 to Plzen on the weekend, and will be hurting. 3-0 was the score in the last round between these two, and we think at home it could be similar, if not worse for Bratislava. -1 Goal is 8/13, and Race to 3 is 23/20, both we like.
These 10 are the 10 we are backing. Either later or tomorrow tips will be up, including either of the two tips for each game. Effectively 20 tips (individual) – and personally I am confident of at least 80% coming in, you always get the odd shock or team not quite manage 3 goals.
Best of luck