A very successful week thus far – 3 winning NAP’s from 4, two on the corners market and one BTTS. There has not been a lot of football on, so value has been at a premium especially with the games being very tight, and hard to predict – which is why I am so thrilled to have found some good picks that people have made some cash from.
The last 5 weekends have had either 7 or 8 out of 10 on the Preview picks, so hopefully we will see the same, if not more. Here are my 10 picks for this weekend:
1. Rosenborg Win @ 11/10 vs Viking (Norwegian Tippeligaen, 1700 KO, Saturday)
It’s still very early in the season in Norway – just 3 games in, but Rosenborg have hit the ground running. 2 wins and a draw from 3 games, with 5-0 and 6-0 wins. Viking have lost 2/3 so far, with a couple of low scoring losses to add to a 3-1 win over newly promoted Tromso
2. Aberdeen Win @ 6/5 vs Inverness CT (HT-FT @ 3/1) (SPL, 1500 KO, Saturday)
Aberdeen have lost some of the form they had around the Christmas period – where they were winning games to nil every week, scoring 1-3 in the process. They have won 3 and drawn 2 in their last 5 games, and won 2 and drawn 2 of their last 5 away games. Inverness have been drawing a lot of games recently – 4 of their last 5 home games have ended all square. Overall they have lost 3 of their last 5 games – and with Aberdeen winning all three meetings this season, you would have to fancy them to make it 4! In 17 of their 22 wins this season, Aberdeen have been winning at HT, following onto FT. A great bet @
3. A Bielefled Win @ 11/10 vs Erfurt (Bundesliga 3, 1300 KO, Saturday)
Bielefeld have featured three times in our tips over the last few months, with a win, draw and loss apiece. Their form reads W3/5 overall, and 2/5 away from home, with a few draws thrown in. However, Erfurt are awful recently – 5 straight losses in the league, with 3 losses in 5 at home. Bielefeld have a good record vs this team – the last 3 games have ended 2-0, 2-0 and 3-0.
4. Lugano Win @ 11/10 vs Winterthur (Swiss Challenge League, 1645 KO, Saturday)
Lugano top their division with only a few more weeks to go and are being chased down by Servette. In terms of form – very impressive. 4 wins from 5 overall and 3 wins from 5 away from home. Witherthur are in the top 5 but have suffered poor form recently, with 4 losses in 5 overall, although their home form is one salvation with three wins in those 5. Lugano have the wood over them – 4 wins in the last 5 meetings, including a 3-0 win last month.
5. Juventus Win @ Evens vs Torino (Win to Nil @ 12/5) (Serie A, 1400 KO, Sunday)
Juventus are through to the Semi Finals of the Champions League for the first time in ages! Their confidence will be sky-high, and facing arch-intercity rivals Torino will be no easy game. However with the likes of Tevez and Morata upfront, with Vidal and Pogba in central midfield, I fancy them to win. 4 wins in 5 games is their overall form, while their away form slipped recently after some poor results against the likes of Parma. Torino are unbeaten at home in their last 5, but this will be a new challenge. In the previous meetings – Juve have won the last 5 overall and the last 5 away – clearly this game means something to all involved and the results show that. 4 of the last 5 wins against Torino overall have been to nil, while all 5 of the 5 away wins in the last 5 games have been to nil!
6. Norwich Win @ 8/13 vs Rotherham (Championship, 1500 KO, Saturday)
Norwich are vying for the title, and with a couple of games to go – there can be no slip ups. They have won 4 of the last 5 games overall and 4/5 away from home to go with that. Rotherham are battling at the wrong end of the table, and can still go down, so the Canaries will not be getting an easy game. They have lost 3 of their last 5 games, and 3 of their last 5 home games.
7. PSV Win @ 1/2 vs Excelsior (-1 Goal Handicap @ 5/4) (Eredivisie, 1945 KO, Saturday)
PSV won the title last weekend after they won and Ajax failed to. Their first title in over 5 years! Hopefully this means they will not take their foot of the gas, and batter a poor Excelsior side who look destined to go back down again. PSV have won 4/5 both overall and away from home, while Excelsior have lost 3/5 both home and overall. In the last 5 meetings in general, PSV have won all 5, usually by 2/3 goals. In the last 5 away meets, PSV have won 4 of those 5. An excellent record! in 4 of the last 5 wins against Excelsior, -1 goal handicap has won. Recently PSV have been battering teams, with the likes of Twente taking a 5-0 beating!
8. Hearts Win @ 1/2 vs Cowdenbeath (-1 Goal Handicap @ Evens) (Scottish Championship, 1500 KO, Saturday)
Hearts have played Cowdenbeath 3 times this season, and scored 17 goals in 10-0, 5-1 and 2-0 wins. They have won the Championship, and are 20-odd points clear. This could have a negative affect, with players possibly being rested, or even kids given a chance – but with Cowdenbeath struggling, Hearts really should win, and win well again. Hearts have won 3/5 both overall and away, while Cowdenbeath have lost 3/5 overall and 3/5 at home.
9. Watford Win @ 4/5 (Over 1.5 Team Goals @ Evens) vs Brighton (Championship, 1215, Saturday)
Watford are realistically 4 points from the Premier League! 4 wins in 5 overall, 3 wins and a couple of draws away from home, and averaging 2 goals per game away from their London home. Brighton have lost 4 of the last 5 games overall, and remain 6 points off the relegation spots, so are pretty much safe so may play that way. Home form is a little better, with 2 losses and 2 draws in their last 5.
10. Monaco Win @ 4/5 vs Lens (HT-FT @ 13/8) (Ligue 1, 1600 KO, Sunday)
Monaco went out of the Champions League this week after dominating against Juventus. They will take heart from it, and know they must now focus on their league/title campaign. They have won 2/5 overall, with 3 draws – and then won 4/5 away from home – which is amazing. Lens have lost 3/5 games both home and overall, with 2 draws in each meaning they have not won in ages! Monaco have also won the last 4 games against them, giving them a psychological edge. In 50% of Monaco’s wins – they have been winning at HT and then FT. In over 50% of Lens’ losses, they have been losing at HT, and then FT…a good bet @ 13/8.
I have tried to stay away from leagues on the final day of the season like the Conference – simply anything can happen, and odds are very low! All these prices are available now on William Hill – last week we had a fiasco after the Demirspor game was priced, then taken down and when re-priced it was about a quarter of the odds @ 1/8 rather than 8/11 as tipped.
Best of luck for the day – Friday’s Tips are already up on the site!