This Saturday, the FA Cup final brings an end to the Domestic season with one of the most prestigious showpieces’ in world football. With no English team left in Europe, this is when the curtain falls on the 2014/15 season – and it shall be a cracker!
Both of these sides have won the competition – Arsenal have 11 times, twice in the past 10 years, while Villa have won it 7 times, the last of which was 1957. Home or away form is irrelevant, so I have looked at each sides last 10 games in general. Let’s have a look how both arrived at Wembley this season:
Arsenal // Villa
3rd Round: W2-0 vs Hull // W1-0 vs Blackpool
4th Round: W3-2 vs Brighton // W2-1 vs Bournemouth
5th Round: W2-0 vs Middlesbrough // W2-1 vs Leicester
QF: W2-1 vs Man Utd // W2-0 vs WBA
SF: W2-1 vs Reading (AET) // W2-1 vs Liverpool
Villa were lucky enough to have 5 home games! Rarely do you see a side fortunate enough to be given so many consecutive home games. Neither had any replays – the furthest any game went was Arsenal vs Reading which needed extra time. Both had 3 wins + BTTS, 2 of them against Championship sides. Now lets look at the form of both:
Arsenal: Won 6, Drawn 3, Lost 1 – Scored 17, Conceded 7
Aston Villa: Won 4, Drawn 1, Lost 5 – Scored 14, Conceded 20
And if you look at recent meetings – Arsenal won both league games this season 5-0 and 3-0, and have won 4 of the last 5 games, with all going over 2.5 goals, having between 3 and 5 in them. With Benteke, Giroud, Walcott, Sanchez and more on the pitch, I fully expect 3-5 goals! Arsenal have won 11 games in a a row in the FA Cup – something I came across when reading the preview from sosbettingtips.com.
Similar to the Europa League final, I have looked at Corners, Cards and Win + BTTS/Overs markets. I have found some good value with the stats to back it up:
1. Under 4 Cards @ 11/10
These two are very much about playing football. No nastiness when losing, simply trying to get back into it, which is why it should be a good final. Here’s the stats on the two sides:
Bookings in last 10 games:
Arsenal: 8 (0.8 per game)
Aston Villa: 13 (1.3 per game)
Arsenal had had 8 bookings in their last 10 games, and 4 of those came against Chelsea. They picked up either 0 or 1 booking in 9 of those 10 games, with Hector Bellerin getting two of those, and even one came in extra time against Reading! Aston Villa did something similar, with 4 bookings in one game, and bar that either 0, 1 or 2 in the rest of the 9 games. Bar one ill-tempered game a few years ago, the last 5 meets have had between 2 and 4 bookings, the one game in question had 10.
2. Under 10 Corners @ 11/10
I’ve taken a look at the amount of corners involved in each of the last 10 games for each side:
Arsenal: 89 (8.9 per game)
Aston Villa: 106 (10.6 per game)
Both have had under 10 corners in half of their last 10 games, with Villa having 8 or 9 all 5 times. Arsenal had as few as 5 in one game, and usually 7-8. In 4 of the other 5 games, they had 10 or 11, so it was very close. In the last 4 meetings, there has been a total of 39 corners, three occasions there were 10 or less (10, 8 and 7).
3. Arsenal Win + BTTS or Arsenal Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 12/5 or 23/20
If you look at the last 5 games, Arsenal have won 4, and even the game they lost went over 2.5 goals. Villa have scored in 3 of the 5, and with the likes of Grealish and Benteke in form, and Arsenal’s usual questionable defending, you can see them scoring!
Something William Hill offer is a mix of all three bets (a slight adjustment on the last) and is priced @ 5/1!
- Arsenal Win, Under 10 Corners + Under 4 Corners
- Under 10 Corners + Under 4 Cards @ 13/5
When looking at the main two Bookies I use, only William Hill have Corners and Cards priced up at the moment, but Bet365 should have similar markets and similar prices up soonish.
Best of luck for the game to all who bet on it!