FA Cup Preview + Value Picks


Afternoon all.

This weekend see’s the famous FA Cup 3rd round, where we have seen so many upsets. Form goes out the window, which kind of makes it much harder, but we have picked what we think is good value, and some games we fancy for a shock or two.

Top 10 Games to Bet on:

1. Middlesborough Win @ 4/5 // Over 1.5 Team Goals @ Evens (Barnsley)

Under Karanka they are a brilliant side, playing good football. Barnsley have lost once in 5 home games, Boro have lost once in 5 away games. Should be a tight game with no more than a goal between the two. Fancy a 2-1, but mainly Boro to score 2 with their dangerous front line that includes Patrick Bamford and Jelle Vossen. A solid 7/10 is out rating for this game.

2. Bournemouth Win @ Evens // Win to Nil @ 23/10 (Rotherham)

Eddie Howe’s side are in good form, both home and away. Rotherham are struggling near the foot of the table, and will be more concerned about league position that the cup, you would think. Bournemouth could well see it the same way, especially since they rested half a team vs Liverpool. Rotherham have failed to score in 3 of their most recent 5 games, while Bournemouth have kept 3 clean sheets in their past 5 away games. We rate this one @ 8/10

3. Bradford Win @ 5/2 // Draw No Bet @ 6/4 (Millwall)

This is quite a high price – but Millwall are in awful home form, whereas Bradford are in brilliant away form, with 4 wins from 5 games. Draw No Bet represents good value, or if you are going all in – 5/2 for the win good value considering. Could have gone in Selected Shocks but this just shows my confidence. We rate this one @ 7/10

4. Brentford Win @ 23/20 // Win + BTTS @ 16/5 (Brighton)

Brentford’s home form is brilliant. 4 wins in 5, 3 of those were win + BTTS. Brighton have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games, losing 2 and drawing 2 with a win against Fulham the only good game. In their meeting last year, it ended 3-2 to Brentford. We really like this one – a rating of 9/10!

5. Sunderland Win @ 6/10 // Win + BTTS @ 12/5 (Leeds)

Sunderland have a pretty poor defence, but a decent front line. We can see them beating Leeds, scoring 2/3 goals in the process but also conceding. Leeds have lost 4 of the last 5, with 3 of those + BTTS. A rating of 8/10.

6. Man City Win + BTTS @ 9/5 // -2 Goals Handicap @ 5/4 (Sheff Weds)

City are having defensive issues at the moment, and Sheff Weds have a very good defence recently. However, these two met last season and it ended 7-0. These mental scars could surface this weekend, after a recent 4-0 loss to Fulham. We rate this one @ 9/10.

7. Man Utd Win + BTTS @ 19/10 // Wayne Rooney Any Time + Man Utd Win @ 5/4 (Yeovil)

Utd have conceded in 4 of their last 5 away games, and although Yeovil are in pretty bad form, memories of the MK Dons game could be a worry for Fans. We would think a few players like Thorpe, McNair or Blackett could get a game, and if thats the case I fancy Yeovil to bag a goal. Still think Utd will progress – both bets look decent. We rate it @ 8/10.

8. Arsenal Win + BTTS @ 9/5 // Over 3.5 Match Goals @ 11/8 (Hull)

Arsenal’s last two meetings with Hull have both ended 2-2 (one went to extra time). Hull will have nothing to lose, whereas Arsene Wenger is under pressure after falling to 5th in the league so far this season, and losing to Southampton. Sczceney is likely to be rested after two mistakes led to a 2-0 loss. Arsenal don’t have the best of luck with keepers…We rate these two bets @ 8/10

9. Chelsea Win + BTTS @ 15/8 // Over 1.5 First Half Goals @ Evens (Watford)

Watford are looking decent away from home at the moment, and gave Man City a hell of a scare last season at this stage. Mourinho, after the Spurs defeat, will be even more Paranoid/Obsessed, and to me it seems to be having a bad effect on the Chelsea camp. Either they will come out flying and bag a few first half, or Watford will grab a goal first, and they will react. Should be quite a strong team as JM is obsessed with winning trophies, and usually takes most seriously. We rate this one @ 9/10

10. Villa vs Blackpool Under 2.5 Goals @ 6/5 // Villa Win + Under 2.5 Goals @ 13/5

These two are currently the bore-draw specialists of English football. Villa have played out 2 0-0 draws in the last 2, with 4 draws in their last 5 home games. Blackpool are pretty awful, but are getting better. They too have had 3 draws in their last 5 games, but a few more goals involved. These sorts of games is where form goes out, but we are expecting very few goals. Maybe a narrow win for Villa. We rate this @ 8/10


Outside of England, there are a few leagues back underway. Not touching the Spanish leagues, or Turkish for that matter. Two bits of value in the French Cup:

1. Monaco Win @ 1/2 vs Nimes (-1 Goal @ 8/5)
2. Rennes Win @ 8/15 vs Dunkerque (-1 Goal @ 7/4)

Both facing lower league sides, Nimes are pretty awful. Dunkerque are three or four leagues down. Expect both to win comfortably.

And some amazing value in Scotland:

3. Aberdeen Win to Nil @ 6/4 – Aberdeen have won their last 8 games to nil, and 6 in a row!!

Tips are coming up a early tomorrow morning.