Last week was much improved! 3/4 came home with only Brentford failing to score at Sheffield Wednesday, Probably would have been my NAP in truth but was a complete write off with Brentford going down to ten men early in the game. Six matches I really like the look of and believe to hold great value!
You’ll find my best four selections are at the bottom of the page.
Cardiff vs Brighton @ 21/20 (12:30 KO, English Championship)
Brighton aren’t quite the force I expected this season, they currently sit 3rd three points off Hull in top spot and a point behind Middlesbrough in second. After a 0-0 draw between Hull and Brighton on Saturday, Brighton need to get a move on if they are too avoid the lottery that is the play-off’s. Cardiff are 9th and five points behind a considerably out of form Derby in the final play-off spot, Currently unbeaten in five they will be confident heading into this they can with results going their way cut the 6th place gap to two.
As I’ve mentioned Brighton have surprised me this term – I think the main difference is the fact they concede on regular occasions which isn’t something you would associate them with especially last season. Brighton have currently conceded 30 goals- which is the highest in the top four and second most across the play-off spots. In terms of goals scored Brighton have managed 40, 17 of which have came away from home – they’ve failed to score away from home on five occasions. Cardiff do their best work on home soil – having lost only once there this season, they have scored 21 of their 38 goals at home and conceded 13 in 15 home matches. Earlier In the season when the two teams met at Brighton it finished 1-1.
Two teams with very important games remaining, every game matters for both clubs if they are to reach the promised land of the premier league – 21/20 is a good price for two teams who will see a draw as dropped points.
Preston vs Sheffield Wednesday @ 21/20 (15:00 KO, English Championship)
Four goals in the reverse fixture back in October when Sheffield Wednesday took three points in a 3-1 victory. Preston have put a good account of themselves in this season, sitting 11th in their first season since promotion. Wednesday are also in fine form unbeaten in seven league matches, their last loss coming at Middlesbrough on the 28th December. Preston are a side that don’t score in abundance but also don’t concede too many either which is the reason they currently sit an impressive 11th, they have scored 29 goals and conceded the same amount. What’s interesting with Preston is they have managed to score 14 goals at home and 15 away, but have failed on 6 occasions away and only 3 at home. So as much as they don’t score loads at home they do score regularly. Worth noting six out of seven of Preston’s league games have finished BTTS.
Sheffield Wednesday’s record pretty much speaks for itself; after the 4-0 drubbing of Brentford they are now the Leagues highest scorers with 49 goals. What is positive for us though is they have also conceded the most goals of any team in the top eight with 33. What I like with this one is 20 of Wednesday’s conceded goals have come away from home and given the fact Preston have only failed to score at home three times, plus the scoring form Wednesday are currently in, 21/20 seems a big price.
Mansfield vs Dag & Red @ EVENS (15:00 KO, English League 2)
Two teams at opposite ends of the table; Mansfield sit 7th whilst Dagenham bottom. What’s strange with these two sides is they are both teams who seem to prefer playing away from home. Mansfield have played 16 home matches winning five whilst playing 16 away and winning eight. Dagenham have played 15 matches home and away; they’ve failed to record a home win but have managed four away victories. Mansfield have scored a season total of 43 goals, 22 coming at home and failing to score in four home fixtures, in 19 home games Mansfield have only managed to keep three clean sheets. Dagenham have a season ‘goals for’ total of 30, which isn’t fantastic but what’s worth noting is they have managed 10 goals at home; they then double that total in away matches alone. Dagenham have conceded a huge 54 goals this season 28 at home and 26 away. When the two teams met back In October Mansfield recorded a 4-3 Victory. Odds of 1/1 for this one.
Reading vs West Brom @ 11/10 (15:00 KO, Emirates F.A Cup)
Ah the F.A Cup; History, Glory, Upsets, Excitement….Nightmare. Will a team field a strong side?, will a replay be a good result for either side?, were the previous opponents of a decent calibre? so many questions to consider when studying any market for this competition. I do believe though this fixture is one that both teams will want to win; no disrespect but Reading are a long long way off the play-off’s and equally a long way off a relegation battle, West Brom should feel confident looking at the teams below them that they are going to be in the Premier League next season so the F.A Cup is going to be a last shot at success for either club. With a place in the Quarter-Finals at stake I would imagine strong sides will be fielded.
Reading come into this one on the back of two 0-0 draws V Burnley and Wolves which I feel are pretty forgiveable results, Before those matches they had scored in five out of six League games. Reading have scored a total 33 goals this season with 17 coming in home fixtures, They have conceded 33 goals with only 10 coming at home. West Brom in terms of goals have managed to net on 24 occasions but only 9 goals have come away from home, they’ve conceded a total 32 goals 14 of which were in away fixtures. The stats aren’t particularly promising, Reading are strong defensively at home and West Brom struggle for goals but being the F.A Cup neither side will want a replay and that should open up the play. Reading for me are likely to take the game to West Brom on home turf and although keeping a clean Sheet at the weekend at Everton which was for me complete fluke West Brom have proven their defence is somewhat fragile. For all of Reading’s Defensive abilities I’m not sure they are able to cope with the likes of Rondon and Berahino should they Feature. Odds of 11/10 too good to turn down for me.
MK Dons vs Bristol City @ EVENS (15:00 KO, English Championship)
Far From two high scoring teams but certainly two poor defences, 20th V 21st. Bristol City have just recently appointed ex Barnsley boss Lee Johnson who clearly made an immediate impact with Bristol City recording an excellent 2-1 victory over 8th placed Ipswich which takes them too three games unbeaten. MK Dons themselves are coming off the back of two fantastic results with a 0-1 win away at Derby and a 1-1 draw at home to Middlesbrough also now taking them too three games unbeaten. Both clubs have poor goal scoring records with MK Dons racking up 25 goals and Bristol City 27, both in the bottom three of goals scored. As much as the goals scored tally is uninspiring the goals conceded its completely the opposite with MK Dons Conceding 42 and Bristol City Conceding 48.
In terms of home v away form there isn’t too much difference; at home MK Dons have scored 14 goals and conceded 20 where as Bristol City away have scored 10 and conceded 25. The main thing for me here is the Defensive records; both clubs concede goals and concede a lot of them, If they are ever going to score goals they are going to come in games such as this. Both sides will feel confident having come up against much more equipped opponents than themselves and have taken away excellent results. This is a big game for the relegation battle and with both sides on 31 points a win either way will open up a nice gap. Wouldn’t like to have to pick a winner, but what I see is two poor defences that consistently conceded at odds of Evens. Perfect. The reverse fixture in October finished 1-1.
Luton vs Hartlepool @ 10/11 (15:00 KO, English League 2)
Luton are another side who seem to much prefer playing away from home, In fifteen home games they have only managed to record three victories. They have scored 18 of their 43 season goals at home and conceded 22 of 45. Luton have kept four clean sheets at home and nine in total. Although Luton favour away ties they come up against a Hartlepool side who have conceded 47 in total 22 of which occurred in away fixtures. In terms of goal scoring Hartlepool have scored 28, only 10 of which have come whilst playing away. Hartlepool although having a poor away goal scoring record have hit a batch of goal scoring form in their recent matches with five of their last six league matches finishing BTTS, add this too the fact they are facing up to a Luton side who struggle for results at home and Hartlepool’s Overall BTTS percentage of 57 and I’m confident they should find the net in this one. Luton scoring isn’t too much of a concern considering Hartlepool’s poor defensive record irrespective of the venue. The reverse fixture in October finished 1-4 in favour of Luton. 10/11 for BTTS here.
- Preston V Sheffield Wednesday @ 21/20
- Luton V Hartlepool @ 10/11
- MK Dons V Bristol City @ Evens
- Mansfield V Dagenham @ Evens
The above pays at around 15/1.