Pretty gobsmacked after yesterday – Sevilla failed to win for the first time at home in 17 games, the first time in that spell we backed them! I officially cursed them…
Today – going back to what served me well in the past – 2 tips per day, with a NAP and a Next Best which form a double that will pay between 3/1 and 5/1:
Furth vs Freiburg: Freiburg Win @ 11/8 (Bundesliga II, 1915 KO – NAP)
Freiburg are pretty good away from home, with 3 wins in a row in recent form. Overall this season 7 wins in 13 away, which is pretty decent. They face Gruether Furth today, who are very hit and miss at home – 6 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses points to a side who are a mid-table team. The previous meeting this season ended 5-2 to Freiburg, and with the league’s top scorer in Nils Petersen in their ranks, I can see them winning today fairly easily. A bigger bet that I like is Freiburg Win + Over 2.5 Goals @ 3/1 – they are high scorers but often concede.
Cittadella vs Bassano: BTTS @ 11/10 (Italian Lega Pro, Group A)
These are two of the top three sides in this league, with both being in great form at the moment. That should bode well for goals, these two have only met twice and both have ended BTTS. In terms of BTTS stats this season – here are the all important figures:
Cittadella: 9 BTTS in 14 games at home.
Bassano: 9 BTTS in 14 games away.
Both have around a 66% record, and in Italy that is fantastic as it is a defensively strong country, with often a lack of goals – though saying that of late it has completely changed, especially in Serie A and B! BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals is available @ 7/4, and is a great risky bet for this! The key for me in this one is that both are conceding regularly against poorer teams. Bassano are great away from home, while Cittadella are very handy at home and are infact top of the league! Should be a great game!
As you can see I have picked a safe and risky option for both – with there being only two games, those who like the bigger bet are a little left out, but with the bigger option there is something for everyone:
- Freiburg Win @ 11/8 + Cittadella/Bassano BTTS @ 11/10 = 4/1
- Freiburg + Over 2.5 Goals @ 3/1 + Cittadella/Bassano BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals = 10/1
Some people have been asking for ‘ratings’ for each game picked – at the end of the day unless I’m pretty much certain each tip will succeed – I won’t tip it. Of late I’ve had unbelievable bad luck – red cards in most games, missed penalties, refereeing decisions etc – I endeavour to pick as many winners as possible but when things don’t go your way, there is little you can do about it!
Best of luck