Good day again yesterday – the double landed fairly easily, with BTTS + Over 2.5 landing before HT in the Celtic game, while Liverpool won 8-1 on corners. Villarreal messed up the treble, and the fourth game suggested also won – again BTTS + Over 2.5 goals in the Plzen-Rapid game.
Today I have picked two doubles, a lower risk 3/1 bet as well as a high risk 29/1 bet – though if you want an accumulator both can be changed slightly to make a 33/1 bet:
1. Viitorul Constanta-Astra BTTS @ 5/6 (Romanian Liga I, 1830 KO)
This is the battle of top two. Both high scorers, and both concede in most games. Astra have a record of 10 BTTS in 16, and have scored in all 16 games, conceding in 11. Viitorul have 9 BTTS in 16, and have scored in 13/16 games, while conceding in 11/16. Viitorul are unbeaten at home, with 6 wins and 2 draws in their 8 games so far – with a total of 23 goals in those (18 scored, 5 conceded). Astra are very good away, with 6 wins and a draw/loss apiece – with a total of 20 goals (13 scored, 7 conceded). They have met twice this season, Astra winning 3-0 in the cup, while the league games ended 2-2 – giving me great belief this will be similar.
The price has dropped from it’s original ‘Evens’ to 5/6, but still terrific value!
2. Metz Draw No Bet @ 11/10 vs Niort (Ligue 2, 1900 KO – NAP)
Metz are unbeaten away from home with 4 wins and 2 draws. They are actually better away than at home, amazingly. Niort are floating just above relegation after drawing 5 of their 6 away games, but it is at home where they lose most of their games – winning just 2/7, with those two being against Sochaux and AC Ajaccio – who are both in awful form. 2/1 is a surprisingly high price for the win, but for me DNB is good value at Evens.
Together it pays 3/1. This is the 29/1 double:
3. Bourg Peronnas Win + BTTS @ 13/2 vs AC Ajaccio (Ligue 2, 1900)
Alternate Option for Acca: Bourg Peronnas Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 9/4
Peronnas are one of, if not the highest scorers in Ligue 2 after coming up from the National league. They have scored 22 goals, and conceded 21 at the same time. However they sit in the top 5, while Ajaccio languish in the bottom 2 teams – if Nimes didn’t have an 8 point deduction, they would be bottom! Ajaccio have won just 1 of their last 10 games, losing + BTTS on 3 occasions and losing on 6 occasions, while Peronnas – despite a poor 2/3 games against a couple of the better teams, remain in good form with half a dozen wins and 4 wins + BTTS. They have only failed to score once in their last 15 games. Good for me to score at least two goals – and probably concede knowing them!
4. Volendam Win + BTTS @ 3/1 vs Telstar (Dutch Erste, 1900 KO)
Alternate Option for Acca: Volendam Win @ 6/4
Before this last 3 games period, Volendam had won 7 and drawn 1 of their 8 games. Despite this, they have still won 4 of 5 away games, racking up 15 goals in the previous 4 wins. Telstar have also lost 3 of their last 5 games, with good home form. Both are priced the same, so the bookies are unsure which way it will go – but I get the feeling it will be a high scoring win for Volendam, regaining their form from a few weeks ago.
So to recap – first double pays 3/1, the one just above pays 29/1 and if you add the two alternate picks to the first two games you get a 33/1 accumulator. If you are feeling very risky – the four main tips together pays over 100/1, but as mentioned probably not advisable to stake any higher than a few quid on that.
Best of luck!