3/1 double was very close to landing for the 3rd night in a row, but Metz couldn’t quite hold a 1-0 lead so the void there means it paid as a 1/1 single depending on how early you got on – dropped to 8/11 by mid-afternoon yesterday
Here are my four selections for today:
1. Bournemouth-Newcastle BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (Premier League, 1245 KO – NAP)
Both of these two can’t keep a clean sheet to save their lives! Baring last week against Hull, and against Man Utd earlier in the season Newcastle regularly concede 2-3 goals each game, while Bournemouth have conceded 5+ on two occasions in recent times. Their records are vaguely similar – 6/14 for B’mouth and 6/13 for Newcastle – but with such poor back fours’ and Newcastle’s attacking talent such as Wijnaldum, Mitrovic and Perez I have confidence they could bag a few and this will be like their games vs Norwich (6-2 the end score). Bournemouth are without a few key players but should still score against one of the leakiest defences in the league!
2. Cagliari HT-FT @ 13/10 vs Modena (Serie B, 1400 KO)
Home form is everything in Italy – and Cagliari have that. 6 wins in 6 games, 18 scored and all 6 were HT-FT wins (winning at half time and leading until full time – do not mistake for Win Both Halves). Modena are yet to win away, and have conceded 9 in 5 away (D2/L3) – very poor form and a game I can see Cagliari scoring 2-3 goals in and easing to a win.
3. Sonnenhof Draw No Bet @ 11/8 vs Kiel (Bundesliga 3, 1300 KO)
Sonnenhof are in the top 3 and in great form – losing just 2 games all season so far and winning 4/7 away games (D2/L1). Kiel on the other hand are bottom of the league and really struggling – 3 losses in a row and just one win in 7 home games. No idea how this is 23/10 for the win, but DNB represents great value @ 11/8!
4. AC Milan -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/8 vs Atalanta (Serie A, 1945 KO)
At home AC Milan have been racking up corner wins – 5 in 5 games with scores of 6-5, 5-1, 7-3, 7-2 and 10-3, against teams of a similar ilk to Atalanta, and the 5-1 win was in a 4-0 loss to Napoli! AC have problems sometimes against teams like these, which makes me think that weather they go 1-0 up early or 1-0 down, they should still put plenty of pressure on and earn multiple corners. Atalanta have got a decent record, but have lost 3 of 5 away games on corners and a couple by -2. In the last meet between these two, when AC were at home – it ended 11-4, so for a few reasons I feel quite confident on this one, especially after 3 in 3 days on corners between Tuesday and Thursday.
As an accumulator this pays 26/1 – while my preferred double is Sonnerhof DNB + Newcastle-Bournemouth BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 4/1 (still trust issues with Italian sides, but value looks good this weekend!)
Best of luck