A lot of bad luck yesterday – god knows how Bournemouth did not score against Newcastle in what looked a cert for BTTS + Over 2.5 goals after Perez gave the travelling toon the lead. AC Milan were 3-0 up on corners and then decided to have a stinker for the remaining 60 minutes, eventually losing 6-4. Sonnenhof were astoundingly bad against a team who are bottom of the league, and I believe would have won in 99 games out of 100 vs Kiel, however had a stinker and lost 3-1. Finally, the one winner – Cagliari HT-FT, dominated from the off and had a 2-1 lead at HT, as well as a one man advantage.
Today – a lower price double and a Win + BTTS double that could combine if you would like an accumulator:
1. Man City -1 Goal Handicap @ 6/5 vs Aston Villa (Premier League, 1330 KO – NAP)
City are in good form, really hammering a lot of teams recently. Villa, even with a new manager – shouldn’t be anywhere near good enough to stand a chance. The likes of De Bruyne should fare well, while we could see David Silva again. Villa have lost 4 of 5 home games and 9 of 11 so far, mainly by one goal but have not faced anyone of the strength of City. Man City on the other hand have won 3 of their 5 away games, winning 1, 2 and 3-0 and sit top of the table. With Kompany back in the defence, they have improved significantly since the 4-1 loss to Spurs. Remi Garde has his work cut out – with a lot of substandard players who have not cut the mustard so far.
2. Club Brugge HT-FT @ 5/4 vs Genk (Belgian Pro League, 1700 KO)
Brugge have been a little indifferent at times this season, but at home – especially in the league they are excellent. 6 wins from 6, and 5 of those HT-FT – while Genk have lost 4 of their 7 away games, as well as 3 of the 4 losses away from home being HT-FT. Brugge are scoring freely, and conceding few. Very much hoping for a couple of first half goals here like they have done so many times this season when at home!
That pays 4/1 with most bookmakers – and here is the additional 2 games that could bump it up to 50/1 acca:
3. Roma Win + BTTS @ 3/1 vs Lazio (Serie A, 1400 KO)
No idea how this game is this price! Roma have won 5 of 7 home games, and drawn the other two – all BTTS, so 5 Win + BTTS in 7 home this season! Lazio on the other hand have lost 7 of their last 10 away games, including 2 against Sassuolo and Atalanta recently – both Lose + BTTS and both away. They do have dangerous players like Felipe Anderson, but have massive issues defending as do Roma. Think this could be a high scoring game, possibly 3-2 or something like that.
4. Basel Win + BTTS @ 7/4 vs Grasshoppers (Swiss Super League, 1500 KO)
Basel, at home – have won 7/7 and conceded just four goals. But those four have been spread over the last 5 home games giving them 4 win + BTTS in their last 5. Grasshoppers have been scoring freely, but have also conceded 26 in 14 games and are still 2nd! This poor defence concerns and pleases me at the same time – with 21 conceded in 9 away games I think Basel will rip them to shreds. In 2015, Basel have won their three meetings 3-2, 4-2 and 2-1. A good omen perhaps
This 2nd double pays 10/1, with the acca as mentioned paying over 50/1!
Best of luck