Football Tips // 11.02.17

1040

With myself and Kieron posting already for today – this is the final piece and is focussing on the handicap market of which there is a hell of a lot of value this weekend! There are a few tempters that have underlying potential to destroy an accumulator – Monaco are at home and 2/9 on, making -2 the only viable value above evens – however they have a habit for winning by just the one goal, and with multiple missing regulars – they are off the list.

Man Utd and Arsenal too are nearer the 1/4 mark, while Barcelona are tempting against a defensively sound Alaves side – but with them losing the reverse, and struggling for form of late, they too are going to be left out. The true value this weekend seems to be lying in wait in the Bundesliga, with 3 of the top 5 sides facing the bottom three teams. Real Madrid too are tempting for -2 @ 7/5, but with them being a little off away from home of late, to give even bottom side Osasuna a two goal head start still seems risky. Two home teams, two away – in a solid 20/1 four-fold:

Brighton vs Burton: Brighton -1 Goal Handicap @ 13/10 (Championship, 1500 KO)

Brighton have dismantled multiple top 6 challengers at home – Norwich were thrashed 5-0, Leeds 2-0, Sheff Weds 2-1, Fulham 2-1…and so on. 11 wins in 14, the only slip-ups against Preston and Villa, as well as a loss to the now Hogan-less Brentford. Burton are not great away from home, winning very few and losing 8 – conceding 26 in the process. Brighton ran out 1-0 winners in the reverse fixture, and with their home form keeping them in the title race, another win here should occur.

 

 

 

 

RB Leipzig vs Hamburg: Leipzig -1 Goal Handicap @ 5/4 (Bundesliga, 1430 KO)

Two contrasting teams here – RB are 2nd in the league and unbeaten at home – 8 wins from 9 and nearly 20 scored. Hamburg on the other hand have lost 70% of their 10 away games and lost the reverse 4-0 early in the season. Timo Werner has been a star in the Leipzig side – he is ill but should play, and even if he doesn’t Davie Selke is a man in good form while Yusuf Poulson is a cracking man to have in the side as well. With Sabitzer and Forsberg also in the mix – RB should stand a cracking chance!

Ingolstadt vs Bayern: Bayern -1 Goal Handicap @ 1/1 (Bundesliga, 1430 KO)

Bayern are not quite what they were a year or two ago, but make no mistake they can batter anyone if they are in the right mood. They are at near-full strength today against the 2nd worst side in the league, and with a front-line consisting of the likes of Lewandowski, Coman, Costa or Ribery – they are a side rather overpriced on the handicap at evens. Ingolstadt have only conceded 30 this season, but 3-4 goals here today wouldn’t surprise me!

Darmstadt vs Dortmund: Dortmund -1 Goal Handicap @ 1/1 (Bundesliga, 1430 KO)

So – the final game. The worst side in the league facing Dembele, Aubameyang and Co. Dortmund haven’t been the reliable side they were under Klopp, but Tuchel has only been in charge for less than 2 years and has sold several key men, so the rebuilding phase is still going. They got it right in the reverse and won 6-0, and with Auba back, Dembele looking a great buy and the side starting to find form – 1/1 for -1 looks amazing value!

As mentioned this pays around 20/1 with Bet365.

Best of luck!

Will