After a few weeks of really dodgy results and some astoundingly poor luck – I have decided to go back to the system that worked so well at the end of last season. 4 picks, and totally down to you, the readers – how to utilise them. I will suggest my preferred double, and they will be in order of 1-4 on how I rate them. You will have all the usual stats in front of you to give good reason why these are good bets. It will give the option of smaller, safer doubles or a full blown accumulator for those who like bigger risks.
1: Dundee FC vs St Johnstone: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 13/10 (SPL, 1945 KO – NAP)
This is my top bet for a good reason. Here are the stats:
Dundee FC: 8 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 12 home games, with two further BTTS’s. In 11 league games, 35 goals involved in their games.
St Johnstone: 12 BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in 14 away games. In 11 league games, a total of 44 goals (22 for, 22 against) when they are playing away from home.
2: Dunkerque vs Beziers: Dunkerque Win @ 19/20 (French National, 1900 KO)
This is a matchup of the best home side in the league against the worst away side in the league.
Dunkerque have won 7 of their 10 home games, scoring 19 goals and conceding 12.
Beziers are winless away, with 3 draws and 6 losses, scoring just 3 goals and conceding 16.
3: Dijon vs Sochaux: Dijon Win @ 4/5 (Ligue 2, 1900 KO)
- Option: Dijon -1 Goal Asian Handicap @ 5/4
Dijon are in fantastic form, with 9 wins in 12 home games this season. They are scoring freely, with around 25 goals in those games, and only 7 conceded! They have put 3’s and 4’s past some strong teams like Clermont recently, so I have good confidence in the Asian Handicap if that is one you want to throw in for the extra price.
Sochaux are in pretty poor form – 1 wins in 12 away, with 5 draws and 6 losses. They only seem to lose by one in all of these, but have only scored 7. With Dijon’s attacking prowess, I’d think they will put 2 or 3 on them at least – but for those who want lower risk, the win is very well priced @ 4/5
4: Pescara vs Vicenza: Pescara Win @ 3/4 (Serie B, 1930 KO)
- Option: Pescara -1 Goal Asian Handicap @ 5/4
This is another like the above – 9 wins in 12 home games for a total of 75% win ratio. They are free scoring, with 25 in their 12 home games so far but around 12 conceded makes it likely they will let one in. They have had a couple of really big wins, but too many 2-1’s and 3-2’s for me to go all-out for the Asian Handidap.
Vicenza started the season well away from home, having the best record, but in recent weeks have tailed off hugely with 5 losses in their last 7 away ties. They have a tendency to be brilliant or useless, a lot of the latter recently. If you want a bigger price, the Asian Handicap offers this and safety incase of a 1-0 win.
My preferred double is 1 + 2 @ 3.5/1, while all four in an Accumulator pays 14/1. If you add in the Asian Handicaps rather than straight win, it rises to 22/1.
- Dunkerque -1 Goal @ 12/5 vs Beziers
- Dundee-St Johnstone Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/4
With Beziers losing games and scoring very few, and Dunkerque’s solid back four and attacking abilities, the -1 Handicap makes good sense and at 12/5 is a very good price, for me overpriced! As for the Scottish game, 44 in 11 for St Johnstone away is basically an average of 4 goals per game. 22 scored and 22 conceded – that tells me they are good going forward but rubbish at the back. 35 in 11 for Dundee at home, with the 2nd most ‘Over 3.5’s’ in the league this season. St Johnstone also have a record of 6 over, 5 under for the 3.5 goal market – including a 4-3 loss in their last game.
Slight speculative, but plenty behind it.
Best of luck for the day