Football Tips // 15.04.17

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1/2 last night – Las Palmas grabbing their obligatory goal before being annihilated by the likes of Aduriz in the Bilbao lineup, ending 5-1. In the other game, Troyes were 3-0 up and playing against 10 men but somehow conceded 2 in a minute to win 3-2, blowing the handicap on that one…literally the mind boggles at that sort of thing!

For this weekend there are some fantastic handicap prices up, both Asian and regular – that I feel are extremely good value. Here are my four for Saturday, with an option of a fifth:

Jagiellonia vs Cracovia: Jagiellonia -1 Goal Handicap @ 7/4 (Ekstraklasa, 1700 KO)

Jagiellonia are top of the league and potentially looking like Champions – a point ahead of Legia. They have been fantastic at home all season, and despite 4 early losses – have roared back to win 10 out of 11 home games since. They have knocked 14 past their 4 opponents since the end of the winter break, conceding only 2. In comparison, the four away games for Cracovia since the winter break ended have included three losses, with 10 conceded. They look in poor shape, and having being beaten twice already this season away from home to Jagiellonia – a third is certainly likely.

 

 

 

 

Torino vs Crotone: Torino -1 Goal Handicap @ 5/4 (Serie A, 1400 KO)

Torino have been a little iffy all season, home or away – but they are most trustable at home, and against arguably one of the worst sides in the league – the Turin based side should sweep aside the relegation candidates with ease. Belotti, Falque and Ljajic (41 goals between the three) are more than the opposition can handle, and add in the likes of Baselli and Benassi (5 goals apiece) and you have a side capable of handing out a thumping. Crotone have lost 12 of 15 away, so despite results like last weekend where they beat Inter, the same won’t be expected today.

Dortmund vs Frankfurt: Dortmund -1 Goal Handicap @ 11/10 (Bundesliga, 1430 KO)

Dortmund are impenetrable at home – which makes the 3-2 loss to Monaco in the week quite a shock. That has been their only loss at home this season in 22 matches, with 10 wins and 3 draws in the league so far. They face a Frankfurt side that have conceded less than a goal per match, but equally have scored the same. 28 scored, 30 conceded – and of late poor away from home with 6 losses in a row on the road. In their last 6 trips to Dortmund, all have ended with a handicap win for Dortmund, with 3-5 goals the norm.

Gijon vs Real Madrid: Madrid -1 Goal Handicap @ 21/20 (La Liga, 1500 KO)

Madrid, like Monaco and Dortmund – have another leg to deal with in midweek but both won (Madrid and Monaco) both won away from home so that takes away the need to rest players and focus fully on it. Madrid don’t have the luxury lead in the league either, so they cannot afford to take the foot off the gas to focus on their 2nd leg – and against a Gijon side they have a great record against a handicap win here is a good bet at 21/20. The home side sit in the bottom three, and have an appalling defensive record with over 60 goals shipped in about half the games. Madrid usually put 3+ past them, and I am expecting similar today.

Monaco vs Dijon: Monaco -2 Goal Handicap @ 11/8 (Ligue 1, 1900 KO)

The 5th option is Monaco – who are exceptionally good at home, and at 2/9 on are little value in the match result market. The handicaps however provide a little more – given the fact Monaco have scored 52 in just 15 home matches, an average of over 3 per game. Dijon are bottom of the away form table, and have shipped over 2 per game. It looks like a massive mis-match to me, even the -2 Asian Handicap being 1/1 is incredible!

Those 5 tips together pay over 60/1 – my favourite double would have to be Dortmund -1 and Monaco -2 Asian to make a 3.2/1 bet – Jagiellonia are infact 6/5 on an Asian Handicap which is fantastic value – they’d be added to make a 7.5/1 treble. Madrid would just over double it, and then Torino take it up to 63/1.

For me, all very good shots with all but Madrid playing at home. Consider if you back the same 5 teams but just to win and it would pay 5.5/1!

Best of luck!

Will