Very good weekend, with 5 tips winning from 7 picks. The two that failed were one goal off, with Cordoba blowing a lead in the last minute and Barnet failing to score. Both double landed @ 3.2/1 and 3.5/1. In the International Preview – 2 winners from four, with both other games also losing by just one goal!
Today there is not a lot on, but I have found a couple of games that I think have particular value:
1. Horsens-Lyngby Over 9.5 Corners @ 1/1 (1800 KO, Danish 1 Liga – NAP)
I have looked back over each teams’ home/away corners this season and found the following stats:
Horsens (Home) – 66 corners in 8 games, Over 9.5 in 4 of 8 and an average of 8.25 per game.
Lyngby (Away) – 91 corners in 9 games, Over 9.5 in 6 of 9 and an average of 10.1 per game.
In their last 6 meetings since the end of 2013, they have had a total of 62 corners and an average of 10.3 per game, while there was over 9.5 corners in 4 of 6 games (10,10, 12 and 15) and in the two that did not go over, there were 7 and 8 respectively. Lyngby often pick up the most, sometimes getting as many as 7-8 corners. Horsens average around 5 per game, and given recent meets I think it could and should happen.
2. Republic of Ireland-Bosnia BTTS @ 11/10 (1945 KO, Euro 2016 Playoff 2nd Leg)
This should be a little like last night’s Norway vs Hungary. Both will want goals, especially Bosnia as they have to consider that Ireland have the away goal. An early goal for either will push the other into attacking and for me this is the most even of the four ties. Home advantage will favour Ireland, but with Bosnia’s quality shining through – it will be a very good game!
Much like the first leg, I think it should go over 2.5 and BTTS, but to go a little less risky would have paid off, therefore I’m going for BTTS @ 11/10.
The double again pays around 3.2/1, but bar these two I see nothing of good value.
Best of luck