Another strange day – one tip sailing in (Graafschap-Almere Over 3.5 @ 6/5), which ended 4-1 – while the two teams with the best goals record in Poland ended 1-0, with over 10 shots on target but by the looks of things the keepers had good games.
A selection of games in England for today – a few risky ones, but all in all good value:
Burton vs Newcastle: Newcastle Win to Nil @ 7/4 (Championship, 1500 KO)
Newcastle are solid defensively – conceding just over a dozen in 21 games so far. Burton have only conceded 28 – just 1.3 per game. They don’t score many – 12 in 10 home games, and while they have only conceded 7 in 10 home, Newcastle have only conceded 5 in 11 away. All this adds up to what should be a low scoring game, with Newcastle’s quality just edging it.
Palace vs Chelsea: Chelsea -1 Goal Asian Handicap @ 11/10 (Premier League, 1230 KO)
Chelsea – scoring plenty, conceding few – playing Palace – scoring/conceding a tonne. I don’t trust win to nil here – Sunderland had some good chances in the week, but with the Palace back four leaking goals left, right and centre – I think Chelsea, with Hazard back – will fire 2-3 goals past them. Asian handicap gives a little extra safety too.
Barnet vs Stevenage: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (League Two, 1500 KO)
The stats look decent for both sides – Barnet in good home form, Stevenage in good away form. 55 and 61 goals in 20 games so far for these two sides, but neither have great records in this market – around 50% (ish) – both will have great confidence going into it, so I think it could well translate into a great game.
Scunthorpe vs Millwall: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (League One, 1500 KO)
Scunthorpe – top of the table, scored over 40 goals and looking like they are heading for the Championship. Millwall, having just come down from that league, are looking like the most entertaining side in the league – scoring and conceding over 30 of each, battering a top side, then getting the same treatment from a side below them. Completely unpredictable, but an incredible amount of BTTS + Over 2.5’s – 9 in their last 10 away!
Scunthorpe are not impregnable – conceding 20, and against one of the best offensive sides, yet worst defensive – they should do well. 3-1 would be my estimate.
The accumulator pays around the 20/1 mark.
Best of luck!