Football Tips // 18.03.16


Morning all

A 4/1 double winner last night – Shakhtar scoring/winning in the 93rd minute against Anderlecht, and Dortmund winning 2-1 against Spurs. Today – I have a great looking Dutch Double which both kick off at 7pm:

Helmond vs Almere City: Over 3.5 Goals @ 11/8 (Dutch Erste, 1900 KO)

It’s very rare that I go to the 3.5 goals market – as it is often very risky. These two teams and the 4th and 1st in terms of this market in their league. Here are the stats:

Helmond: 13 Over, 16 Under (Overall). 6 Over, 8 Under (Home) – 6 in their last 10 games at home.

Almere: 17 Over, 12 Under (Overall). 12 Over, 2 Under (Away). 8 in their last 10 away games.

Look into their last 5 games, and three of them have ended 2-2, 3-2 and 3-1. Almere recently won a game 6-5, so they are very good at scoring, and are in great form – but can’t defend for their lives!

Jong Ajax vs Jong PSV: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 5/6 (Dutch Erste, 1900 KO)

Although this is a smudge under Evens, I still think it’s amazing value. This is a battle of the PSV and Ajax reserves, so there is a possibility of a few first teamers in action. Here are the stats:

Jong Ajax: Scored in 13 of their last 15 home games, whilst conceding in 12/15. 8 BTTS + Over 2.5’s.

Jong PSV: Scored in 9/14 away games, whilst conceding in 12/15. 6 BTTS + Over 2.5’s.

One thing to note – both have had a few BTTS-only games ending 1-1.  Looking at their only 5 meetings, there scores have been 3-3, 2-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 2-4.

This pays in the region of 3.4/1 – and for me is a great looking bet given the stats.

Two other games I quite liked but not quite enough were Nimes Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1/1 vs Creteil, and CSMS Iasi vs Voluntari BTTS @ 11/10. Both decent statistically but nowhere near as good as these two above!

Best of luck