Good morning all
A good day yesterday – 3 tips out of 4, with BTTS + Over 2.5 looking dead in the Austrian game – but 3 goals in 5 minutes between 81 and 86 meant it won in the end. Southampton and Jonkopings both also won with a 1 goal handicap, 2-0 and 5-2 but Liege let us down, in an even game they lost 1-0 despite having the best of the chances.
Today, back to doubles/trebles:
1. AFG Aarhus-Sonderjyske Over 2.5 Goals @ 1/1 (Danish Superliga, 1800 KO – NAP)
Aarhus have a record of 9 over 2.5’s in 13 games this season, with 5/6 at home. Sonderjyske have the best record in the league – 10 over/3 under 2.5 goals, with 4 over and 3 under away from home. A key factor is the history of this game – the last 11 meetings have all gone over 2.5 goals, with both scoring in most if you want to bump up the price with BTTS + Over 2.5, however the safe option is over 2.5 @ 1/1.
2. Dinamo Bucharest-Viitorul Constanta BTTS @ 1/1 (Romanian Liga I, 1830 KO)
Both of these teams are in good form, with 66% of Viitorul’s games going over 2.5 goals, although the BTTS count is not amazing – just 5 in their last 10 away games. Bucharest also don’t have a great count for this, but with such a poor league it’s not surprising. With most teams bar Steaua being in financial difficulty, most struggle to finance the next month of wages. In 8 meetings, BTTS has won in 6, and while Dinamo have been at home, all four have been BTTS. A little more ‘Gut’ that head, but it’s one I think could be a high scorer – this league is a bit like France or Argentina – with such a number of low scoring teams it drags the odds upto around Evens, even for the better teams.
As a double, this pays 3/1. A few other games were tempting, such as Spurs-Villa, but the unpredictability of the league makes it hard to trust when it comes to betting. Kane + Spurs Win @ 5/4 is a special of William Hill, while Spurs -1 @ 11/10 is also good value – however the fact they have a new manager incoming and a different coach in charge, the ‘new manager effect’ is one that has blighted me so many times as a Newcastle fan when it comes to Derby’s at least, and with Spurs unreliable nature I’m leaving alone!
With the European football coming up this week, I have a 10-game review ready for later on today, picking my value of the markets so far across both Champions and Europa League(s) as well as the Championship. Corner markets are a strong possibility with a couple of games, so they will be posted on the day, while I also plan to pick two bets a day over Tuesday/Wednesday and make an accumulator out of those.
Good luck for the day