Literally cannot believe it. Dortmund 3-0 up (winning the halves 2-0 and 1-0) but then go and concede a 93rd minute goal. AZ had over 15 shots and dominated the game, yet lost 1-0. Bilbao won 2-0, with Partizan having 3 clear gaping chances to score, but hit the bar, post and skied it. Then we have Fiorentina – lost 2-1 to a side who are in their worst run in years. Nothing went right, again!
As always, I am quietly confident. Despite this run ruining the months stats after a week from hell, I’m determined to pick some good priced winners to end the week on a high! Some great games about tonight, keeping it short to save boring you all:
1. Wacker Innsbruck Draw No Bet @ 1/1 vs Austria Lustenau (Austrian Erste Liga, 1930 KO – NAP)
Innsbruck have won 7 of their 7 away games, conceding just 6 goals in the process. Lustenau have lost 4 of their 7 home games, while both previous meets this year have ended 1-0 to the side we are backing today. 21/10 is the win price, which I’m sure is massively overpriced given form.
2. Evian TG-Creteil Over 2.5 Goals @ 43/40 (French Ligue 2, 1900 KO)
Evian have a record of 5 Over 2.5’s in 11 games, and 3 over/2 under at home. Creteil have a record of 7 Over 2.5’s in 11, and 4 Over/2 Under away from home. Their last 4 games have ended 3-2, 4-1, 2-1 and 3-0, a mix of wins and losses. These two have not met in 5 years, so previous meets have little relevance.
3. Volendam-Emmen Over 3.5 Goals @ 6/5 (Dutch Erste, 1900 KO)
Here’s a damning fact – the last time these two met and it stayed under 3.5 goals with Volendam being at home was 2005! Since then results of 3-2, 5-1, 3-2, 3-1, 3-1, 6-0, 5-1, 6-1 and 5-2, while overall there has been four over 3.5’s in the last four meetings, with Emmen winning 3 of them. 10 of Volendam’s last 20 home games have gone over, while only 8 of Emmen’s last 20 away games have gone over 3.5 – but with the stats at the top, I think the tradition will continue. If it doesn’t, we obviously cursed it!
4. Osijek-Slaven Belupo Over 2.5 Goals @ 21/20 (Croatian HNL, 1700 KO)
Both have a total of 35 goals in 13 games this season, and both have a record of 8 over 2.5’s in 13 games, with Slaven’s away record of 5 over 2.5’s in 6 games being impressive and persuasive on this one. The last 5 meets have ended 3-2, 3-0, 2-1, 3-2 and 2-0, while at the ground of Osijek, the scores have been 3-2, 3-2, 4-1, 2-1 and 2-1. Two poor sides, looking down rather than up. Should be entertaining!
As an acca, this pays 18/1 – the earliest game being my least favourite of the four, but a great double in my eyes in 1 + 3 @ 3.5/1.
Best of luck – let’s hope ours changes today, and ready for a big weekend of football!