With a new system in place – things have picked up a bit. 2/2 last night, with both options winning on the Russian 1st Division game (Voronezh @ 5/4 and BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 1/1) as well as Viitorul win @ 1/1, ending 3-1. I got carried away with the whole ‘minimum odds of evens’ policy, as I was hunting value of evens or above when it often wasn’t quite there – ignoring very likely games when the odds were slightly below even money. There was also a little scepticism about how often away games were picked, so taking that into account.
Anyway – new system – max of 2-3 picks each day during the week, and to keep our readers who like accumulators, I will boost with a couple of matches around 1/2 in price, which will also offer a safe-ish double your money type bet, between 1/1 or upto around 6/4. We actually had a lad on trial who wanted to do this sort of thing, but as with many writers we have on trial they can’t hack it and disappear after a week or two..
Anyway – onto today, a couple of good priced home games, and a double chance duo that offer a good value 6/5 double:
1. Crotone Win @ 1/1 vs Brescia (1930 KO, Italian Serie B – NAP)
Crotone have won 4/4 at home so far this season, and sit top of the pile in the league with 6 wins from 9 games. For those of you who don’t know much about Italian football – the home side usually gets something – in this fixture alone, the home side have taken 3 points on 10/15 occasions and the away side has won just once in 15, with four draws. Brescia are predictably good at home, but have won just 1/5 away, losing twice and overall conceding goals to the likes of Avellino, Salernitana and Como, who are doing very poorly and occupy the bottom 3 sides. With such a mean defence, I think a close 1-0 or 2-0 is the likely outcome.
2. Oostende Win @ 11/8 vs Genk (1930 KO, Belgian Pro League)
Oostende, like Crotone – are very good at home. 5 wins in 6 this season, beating the likes of Anderlecht on the way. Genk have a similar home record, and it is just that that is keeping them up the top of the table, as their away form is shocking – with one win in 6 and 3 losses. In their last 5 meetings – 2 wins for Oostende and 3 draws, so even though it is this season that Oostende have started doing really well, the theme is that they are tough to beat at home. Good value, especially given the form!
1. Poole Town Win or Draw @ 1/2 vs Chesham (1945 KO, Southern Premier League)
I have widely ignored the lower English leagues this season when often there is good value – and this is a good game for it. At 5/4, Poole look good value for a side who sit top of the table, and have won all meetings against Chesham as well as 5 of their 7 games this term. Chesham however are themselves in good home form, having lost once all season (at home that is) – but have not played anyone with the strength of Poole – who have won 8 of their last 10 games and are on a massive win-streak. Heart would say go for the win @ 5/4, but safety and my brain says go for Double Chance @ 1/2.
2. Leicester Win or Draw @ 1/2 vs Hull (1945 KO, Capital One Cup)
Leicester are in pretty good form and are 13/8 to win – and will be high in confidence. Hull are also in a nice patch of form, but I feel will value promotion over a cup run, as they were in Europe the season they got relegated and will have seen what happened to Birmingham when they were in the competition in the Championship.
Having looked at the team news it looks like both will make changes. Hull are missing various players such as Snodgrass, Davies, Bruce, Diomonde and Aluko, while Ranieri is going to make changes – apparently Okazaki, Kramaric and Inler coming in – could be more but those are the known ones, he rested 10 last time in the Cup, and trusts his fringe players. Vardy is definitely not playing – and even with all this news I still fancy them to get a draw minimum, especially with the list of players Hull are missing – which also could include Diame, Huddlestone and Maloney.
So there are my tips for today – 3.75/1 and 6/5 doubles – if you add them together you get 10/1 (27/1 if you back all four as wins) but I am not tipping them as accumulators but as a lot of people tinker with these selections to get higher prices, I am simply giving you all the info.
Let us know what you think of the new system, which to be fair has been developed after talking to many of you over the last few weeks which has been probably the worst run of my career in betting!
Best of luck