Since the start of this new system on Sunday, it has been a case of so nearly. 7/10 since then, with two more that really should have won – so pretty unfortunate to not be on 9/10 at this point in time! Yesterday was similar, with the NAP of Galatasaray -1 winning, 4-0 the end score, so the NAP landed @ 11/10. Fenerbache also won, 1-0, but very nerve-racking at the end. Sampdoria pretty much had the better of the game, but went behind in the 2nd half, levelled and then played the last 10 against 10 men and had numerous chances.
I have picked a treble today, with the option of a fourth if you want an accumulator. Three kick off later in the evening, while the fourth is a 3pm kick off in Turkey:
1. Atletico Madrid Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1/1 vs Deportivo La Coruna (1930 KO, La Liga – NAP)
Madrid have been pretty impressive this term. Despite facing all of the other top 5 sides from last season, they still sit 3rd and in good form on the road with 4 wins in 5 games, and scoring 2 or more in 4 of those. Overall, 2+ have been scored in 7/12 this season – but as mentioned the away form is key, and with an amazingly strong lineup they should bag two later on tonight.
Deportivo have been pretty good and sit in the top 6 or so teams. Their defence is okay at the moment, but have conceded 2 or more in 3 of their 5 home games so far this season. Last season Madrid won both, 2-1 and 2-0. A mix of gut and statistics here, but my top bet for the day.
2. Bayern Win Both Halves @ 1/1 vs Frankfurt (1930 KO, Bundesliga)
Bayern have scored 3 or more goals in 8 of their last 10 games, winning both halves on four occasions and probably should have been more given they missed a penalty in the first half of one game, and went on to score 3 in the 2nd half. Frankfurt are no mugs – just one loss at home this year, but a lot of draws and nobody quite like Bayern have faced them.
With Robben/Ribery getting fitter, Costa terrorising back fours’ and Lewandowski scoring for fun, I see them scoring a couple each half and winning 4/5-0 overall. Another key stat in this is that Bayern have won the last 3 meetings 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0, winning both halves on all three occasions!
3. Evian TG Draw No Bet @ 5/4 vs Sochaux (1900 KO, Ligue 2)
This is a meet of 7th vs 18th, and a team that have beaten two of the toughest clubs in the league in their last two away games. Evian defeated Bourg Peronnas and Dijon, who have been in great form. They have lost just once in 6 away games, with their opposition winning in just one of 6 home games, with 3 losses. The last meet ended 3-0 to Evian – so I feel this bet is good value, and offers a little safety as I cannot see them losing this one.
That pays as a treble 8/1, while if you add the option game, which I am 75% sure will happen, it turns into a 17/1 accumulator:
4. Karabukspor Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 1/1 vs Boluspor (1500 KO, Turkish PTT 1 Lig)
Karabukspor are top of the league, with 5 wins in 9 games. The pattern seems to be they either draw 0-0, or win by 2. They have scored just 12 in 9 games, but don’t ship many at the back either so this could be a dull game, or an easy win. They have beaten Adana Demirspor recently, who are one of their main rivals for promotion. Boluspor on the other hand have conceded just 12 in 9, but have conceded 2+ in 4 of their last 5 games, and coming up against a side like they are doing, I feel it could continue that way
My suggested double would be 1 + 2 @ 3/1, while the treble pays 8/1 as you well know. 17/1 is the price for the acca.
Best of luck