Poor Week last week with two very late goals securing 2/4. Glad in truth to have February out of the way was not an enjoyable month. Looking forward to starting March hopefully with plenty of winners!
Southampton vs Sunderland @ 1/1 (15:00 KO, Barclays Premier League)
Before the Bournemouth and Chelsea games Southampton had kept six clean sheets on the bounce, but have now conceded four in their last two. Sunderland managed to climb out of the relegation places with a midweek draw against Crystal Palace but still sit level on points with the two teams directly below them.
Southampton have scored 35 goals this season and as previously mentioned with six clean sheets on the bounce naturally have a low conceded total of 28. Sunderland have scored more than any team placed between bottom and 11th with 34 goals, but of course a team with a good goals for record who still sit 17th they have conceded the joint most goals in the league with 53. In terms of home v away form Southampton have conceded 15 of their 28 goals at St Mary’s and scored 24 of their 35, Away from home Sunderland have scored 17 of their 34 goals and conceded 37 of 53.
Even though Southampton have a very good defensive record across the board they are coming off the back of two defensively poor performances, and even with Sunderland’s lowly league position they score goals consistently – failing to score away from home only four times. Evens a very good price.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Rotherham @ EVENS (15:00 KO, English Championship)
I’m surprised at the price of this one; granted Rotherham have only scored once in their last four but if you were too take their last 13 matches into account they have scored in nine of them, for a team in 22nd place that isn’t a bad return. You also have to take into account Sheffield Wednesday have conceded in five of their last seven matches, Both of these teams have relatively high BTTS %’s for this time of the season as well; Sheffield Wednesday have 62% and Rotherham have 56%.
In regards to season totals; Sheffield Wednesday have scored an impressive 50 goals 33 of which have come in home matches, whilst they have conceded 35 with 14 coming in home ties. Rotherham have managed 38 goals this term but only 14 have come on the road and they have conceded 59, 31 of these away from home.
Potential worry in this one being Rotherham’s habit of scoring noticeably fewer goals whilst playing away from home, I personally believe with Sheffield Wednesday’s defensive record this risk significantly lowers. When looking for value Evens on two teams with BTTS %’s and overall scored/conceded records like these is two good too pass up.
Preston vs Brighton @ 23/20 (15:00 KO, English Championship)
Another match where both teams hold BTTS %’s above 50 with both sides on 53%, Preston can still reach the play off places currently sitting tenth and Brighton will have a keen eye on top spot currently 4th two points behind Burnley.
Preston will feel a lot more confident heading into than anyone would have predicted at the start of the season! They sit seven points off the play offs with 33 goals scored and 32 conceded. Brighton as to be expected have scored a powerful 49 goals this term but perhaps more surprisingly have conceded 34. Preston have scored in all of their previous five matches and conceded in four. Brighton have scored in four of their previous five and conceded in two.
Brighton only conceding twice in their last five matches could be of a concern but this certainly does not reflect the season as a whole. Also worth noting Preston have only failed to score at home on three occasions.
Plymouth vs Oxford @ 1/1 (15:00 KO, English League Two)
2nd V 3rd both on 64 points. A game again where the venue suits this market Plymouth scoring slightly more on home turf and Oxford scoring more of their goals on the road.
Plymouth don’t score bags of goals they’ve found the net on 48 occasions so far which is the lowest in the top five in league two, they do score consistently though at home only failing to score once. Home and away Plymouth have scored in three of their last five and conceded in two. Oxford are more prolific going forward with 59 goals in total and and 32 conceded. Oxford have scored in four of their last five and conceded in the same amount.
The main positive in this one is the venue; Plymouth have scored 26 of their 48 at home and conceded 16 of 28. Oxford have scored 34 of their 59 away from home and conceded 17 of 32. Plymouth score and concede more at home and the same can be said for Oxford whilst on the road. Both teams have BTTS %’s above 50.
Best Bet: Preston vs Brighton @ 23/20
Treble @ 8/1
Southampton V Sunderland
Sheffield Wednesday V Rotherham
Preston V Brighton
Selections as a four fold pays around 16/1