Far from a fantastic start to March last week with only one of the advised treble coming home and the additional selection winning in the first half ironically. Dont you just love football?, four selections again this week; the best bet, advised treble and four fold odds can be found at the bottom of the page. Praying for a big week as results have become increasingly frustrating of late. Fingers Crossed.
Bournemouth vs Swansea @ 21/20 (15:00 KO, Barclays Premier League)
Two Premier League strugglers placed 14th and 16th respectively, both teams SHOULD be safe from the drop and really only have pride left to play for. Bournemouth across the season have consistently conceded and have done so on 45 occasions, 21 of those have come on home soil – in fairness before their 3-1 victory over Newcastle they had kept two clean sheets on the bounce against Southampton and Watford. Before the two previously mentioned clean sheets though they managed to conceded four in seven matches.
Swansea are a side that don’t have massive goals for or goals against tallies with 28 goals scored and 37 conceded, although they have only found the net on 28 occasions they have scored in nine of their last 10 Premier League games. Bournemouth have scored 17 of their 35 goals at home this season, whilst Swansea have conceded 19 of their 37 away. I can understand why this has been priced at 21/20 but given the fact Swansea have managed to score a little amount of goals but very consistently alongside Bournemouth’s 45 goals conceded aswell as the fact Bournemouth have only failed to score at home on four occasions I feel the price is too good to miss.
Rotherham vs Derby @ 1/1 (15:00KO, English Championship)
Rotherham sit 22nd a point behind safety whilst Derby who were tipped by many for automatic promotion sit 5th only five points above dropping out of the play off places. A lot to play for in this one for both sides. Starting with Rotherham who although have struggled for results have consistently scored goals all season long; they have managed 40 in total with 25 coming at home, failing to score on home turf only three times which certainly isn’t bad for a team in 22nd. Naturally for a team in their position though they leak goals and have conceded 59 – 28 of which have come at home.
Derby have been poor this season by their standards and a 2-0 away loss to QPR midweek certainly didn’t help, they have managed 47 goals with 20 away from home but have also conceded 32 with 19 coming in away matches. Derby much like I’ve previously mentioned with Brighton don’t have a horrific defensive record by any stretch but again are a team you associate with very little goals conceded so for them too have conceded 32 is much more than I would have Expected.
Sheffield Utd vs Oldham @ 11/10 (15:00KO, English League One)
I’ve Looked at this, re looked at this, looked again double checked and decided to go with it. I’m going to start with Oldham’s stats as they are where my concerns for this one lie. Oldham are top of League one in terms of BTTS with 70% and 23 of 33 games finishing BTTS. Although being top of the BTTS league Oldham are in fact 22nd of the actual league table, they’ve scored only 33 goals this season which is joint lowest in the league with Blackpool and they have conceded 44. Not exactly confidence boosting those stats but in their last four matches all four have finished BTTS, also since 16th January they have failed to score in four matches which means before that point they failed to score only four times in five months which is much more promising.
Also confidence boosting is the fact Sheffield United have managed to concede on 47 occasions this term and have kept only five clean sheets at home, they have conceded in five of their last seven matches. In total they have conceded 25 of their 47 goals at home, Sheffield United have scored 49 goals this season over half of which have come at Bramall Lane. No doubt risky but at odds of 11/10 there is definite value in this one.
GIllingham vs Crewe @10/11 (15:00 KO, English League One)
3rd V 23rd in this one. Two teams who both hold BTTS percentages of 63% and both desperately need wins from here on in. Gillingham have scored 60 goals this season which is the highest in the league, they have managed to get 34 of those 60 at home. In terms of goals conceded they have a tally of 43 – 15 in home ties. Crewe have scored 37 goals so far 19 of these have been struck on the road and conceded 60! 28 in away matches. Crewe in terms of both goals scored and conceded seem to do ever so slightly better in away matches so that is a positive in itself, although they don’t have too many goals for the season total they do score consistently in the sense they’ve failed to find the net nine times in 35 matches. Gillingham are four games without a win and have conceded six goals in those four matches so although they have only conceded 15 times at home this season a side like Crewe who consistently score away from home will be confident they can grab a goal here.
Best Bet: Bournemouth vs Swansea @ 21/20
Advised Treble @ around 7/1
- Bournemouth V Swansea @ 21/20
- Rotherham V Derby @ Evens
- Gillingham V Crewe @ 10/11
Fourfold Pays @ around 15/1
Good Luck as always!