Football Tips // Champions League // 04.11.15


Morning all

Middlesbrough were the letdown last night – winning 1-0 despite dominating much of the game, just failing to score a much needed 2nd goal for a -1 goal win. In the other games, Fulham-Burnley BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals landed with ease, 1-3 in the end – while Atletico -2 corners @ 11/8 also won, just – with a score of 7-4. Wolfsburg were so bad it was unreal – certainly going to try and stick to goals bets or home bets as much as possible.

Not a lot on today – just two games for me look of good value, with an option of a 3rd if you fancy a bigger price:

1. Leverkusen-Roma BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11 (1945 KO – NAP)

This ended 4-4 last time out, with both defences’ looking a little suspect. If you look through Roma’s form, then you will find that 9 of their last 10 games have won in this market, while just 4/10 for Leverkusen – however 7/10 have gone over 2.5 goals. Both have great attacking players, but are not brilliant when it comes to defending – and you’d think German and Italian sides were the masters of the art. This pays slightly under Evens, which is somewhere we don’t go too often, but great value all the same.

2. Porto -2 Corner Handicap @ 11/8 vs Tel Aviv (1945 KO)

Same as the Atletico game from today – Porto are very strong in the corners department, beating Tel Aviv 13-0 last time. Like today though it’s proof that going to places like Kazakhstan and Israel is tough, so although I don’t expect the same result, I do think they will rack up plenty and win by 4-6 corners. In recent games they have won games on corners by the following scores: 8-4, 10-3, 8-4 (Chelsea), 7-2 (Benfica), 13-0 (Tel Aviv), 3-1, 4-2 and 6-1. They have drawn one 6-6 and lost another to Dynamo Kyiv (2-7) but generally impose themselves on smaller teams, often camping out in their halves and drawing corner after corner. A good price!

Together it pays around 3.5/1 – and with both kicking off at the same time it will make it interesting!

3. Dynamo Kyiv +3 Corner Handicap @ 1/1 vs Chelsea (1945 KO)

Chelsea, baring an 8-2 win over Tel Aviv, have not won a game on corners at home. They have either tied or lost the rest, even against the likes of Swansea, Palace and Villa. With a 3 corner head-start, Kyiv have not lost a game forever – literally have to go miles back even to find a game they lost on! They won this 6-4 in the first leg, and with Chelsea’s lack of confidence mixed with their perenial lack of corners in home games this season, I see this as a very good bet! As long as they stay within 2 corners of Chelsea, it will win – and if they earn a few early on in the game, all the better!

With that added, it is a 8/1 treble.

The Bet365 offer of a £50 risk free in-play bet is on again tonight – so if you place a bet upto £50 before kickoff, your first bet in-play upto the same amount is refunded if it loses. The only thing is you can’t effectively cover all outcomes of any bet as it contravenes their rules, so the way to do it is use a 2nd bookmaker to cover the final outcome if you work out a way to make profit.

Best of luck