Last night’s tips both won, with varying degree’s of stress! If you followed the Bet365 offer we did, you also would have made around £40 guaranteed profit. A good night all-round…
Wolfsburg got the required 3 corners inside the first half, ending with just four and losing 3-0 despite being 2-0 up from the first leg. In the 2nd game, Man City eventually got the 6 corners needed, having just one going into the 2nd half, but getting the other 5 within 25-30 minutes and winning the game 1-0, qualifying for the semi finals for the first time!
Today, another two games and two that are very close from the first leg. Bayern lead Benfica by a goal, while Barcelona lead Atletico Madrid. Both should be interesting, but with such games decided by small margins, I’ve gone with two options for the first game as one market is on offer with only a few bookies, while the other I have another two due to the fact that corners bets, especially handicaps – and often only with Bet365.
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: At Madrid Over 4.5 Cards @ 6/5
Next Best: Barcelona Win @ 13/10
Atletico are a dirty team, there’s no getting away from it. They pick up so many bookings – looking at their last 7 meetings with Barcelona they have totalled 8, 6, 3, 5, 10, 4 and 6 – that’s 42 bookings, an average of 6 per game. In the first leg, Fernando Torres was sent off after scoring, and from then they just kept racking them up. It really reflects the type of coach Simeone is!
With Barca ahead, and an early goal likely to resign Atletico to an exit, I think they will get nasty again. The line has moved from Over 3.5 @ 8/11 to Over 4.5 @ 6/5 – which for me is great value. For those who can’t get this market, the Barca Win @ 13/10 looks a good bet. In Messi, Suarez and Neymar they have more than enough to break a very good Madrid defence.
5 bookings may seem a lot, but it’s happened in 5 of the previous 7 meetings.
Benfica vs Bayern Munich: Bayern -1 Corner @ 21/20 (NAP)
Next Best: Bayern -1 Goal Asian Handicap @ 23/20
Bayern lead by just a goal, which goes to show how much fight Benfica had put up in the first leg that could have gone oh so wrong for them. In this 2nd leg though, they know that one goal will mean them needing three, so caution may go quite early. Like I did yesterday, I have gone for a corners bet in this one – but on the handicaps this time.
In their last 10 away games, Bayern have won 8 of them on corners, and 7 of the 8 by -1 (by two or more). The first leg ended 5-2 to the Germans. I have also looked at Benfica’s home games, but the majority of teams they play are not on their planet, quality wise – so on corners and in the game, they get mullered (which is ironically what might happen tonight…). They still lost 3 of the last 10 home games on corners, and all three by -1, and conceded plenty each game to some very poor teams.
If you can’t get this market, I think Bayern -1 Goal Asian Handicap is the next best. The least I expect is a 1-0 win, which would mean a void, but with Benfica pushing for a result they could be left open, and torn to shreds by a slick Bayern team.
- At Madrid Over 4.5 Cards @ 6/5 + Bayern -1 Corner @ 21/20 = 3.7/1
Next Best Double:
- Barcelona Win @ 13/10 + Bayern -1 Goal Asian Handicap @ 23/20 = 4/1
Best of luck