I stupidly gave yesterday a miss as I was a little tired after the final nightshift of the week – the two I had lined up won, Fenerbache 3-0 (-1 @ 5/4) and Cagliari-Crotone BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 7/4, so looking to make up for it today.
All the value I see lies in the FA Cup, but there are several things to consider:
- Very cold, which is usually bad for goals.
- Higher ranked teams are at home, on a better surface – when underdogs win it is often on their own turf, where the higher ranked sides struggle.
- Pressure is all on the big teams to qualify, so a better side might be fielded.
A lot of the games I have looked at today were good for BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals in the first legs. I will be looking at mainly similarly matched teams, in similar leagues – or where the weaker side is at home.
Yeovil vs Carlisle: BTTS + Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (1945 KO)
These two have met twice this season, and both have won in this market as they have ended 2-2 and 3-2, while the last 5 have all gone this way too. Carlisle have had a tough 8-10 games – playing Oxford, Plymouth, Wycombe and Northampton in that spell of away games. Yeovil have also struggled, but with both knowing there are weaknesses both should be pushing for early goals.
Portsmouth vs Ipswich: BTTS + Over 2.5 @ 11/8 (1945 KO)
Another game on the weekend that ended 2-2, this looks to be full of goals again.
Portsmouth are very good at home, not losing in 10 and conceding twice in the same period. Ipswich have been good away from home of recent times, but overall this season have been iffy. Only 6 BTTS + Over 2.5’s this season, but the FA Cup has proven anything can happen and form is irrelevant.
Double pays nearly 4/1.
If you would want to put on a 4-fold acca – then I also like WBA to win @ 11/10 and Villa-Wycombe BTTS @ 11/10 which would total around 20/1.
Best of luck